Sosyonomik Yaklaşım Kapsamında Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansal Piyasalar Arasındaki İlişki: Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi

Bu çalışma ile sosyonomik yaklaşım kapsamında Türkiye’nin ABD, Almanya, İngiltere veFransa’ya gerçekleştirdiği ihracat ile aynı ülkelerin ekonomik olarak sosyal ruh halleriningöstergesi olan finansal piyasaları arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada, 1996 ve 2018yılları arasındaki dönemi kapsayan aylık ihracat verileri ile aylık finansal piyasa getirilerikullanılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi sonucunda, Türkiye’nin ABD, Almanya, İngiltere ve Fransa’yagerçekleştirdiği ihracat ile bu ülkelerin finansal piyasaları arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğugörülmüştür. Granger Nedensellik analizi sonucunda, ABD ve Almanya finansal piyasalarından(Dow Jones-Dax) Türkiye’nin ABD’ye ve Almanya’ya gerçekleştirdiği ihracata doğru veTürkiye’nin İngiltere’ye gerçekleştirdiği ihracattan İngiltere finansal piyasalarına (FTSE100)doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

The Relationship Between İnternational Trade and Financial Markets in the Scope of Socionomics Approach: The Analysis of Cointegration and Causality

This study examines the relationship between Turkish export to USA, Germany, United Kingdom, France and financial marketswhich is an indicator of socionomics of these countriesexamined within the scope of socionomic approach. Turkish export to USA, Germany, United Kingdom, France and returns of financial markets (Dow Jones, Dax, FTSE100, CAC40) of these countries are used as variables within the period of 1995-2018. In this study, ARDL Bound Test show that there are co-integration relationships between series. The result of Granger causality analysis demonstrates that there is an unidirectional causality between series. These unidirectional causality occurs from financial markets of USA (Dow Jones) and Germany (Dax) to Turkis export. Another unidirectional causality takes place between Turkish export and financial market of United Kingdom.

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