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ABD Finansal Piyasalarındaki Gelişmelerin ve Belirsizliklerin Borsa İstanbul Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri

Bu çalışmada, ABD hisse senedi piyasası ve bu piyasadaki belirsizliklerin yanında ABD Merkez Bankası (FED) para politikalarındaki belirsizliğin Borsa İstanbul (BIST) üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Bu incelemede, doğrusal olmayan otoregresif gecikmesi dağıtılmış (NARDL)vedoğrusalotoregresifgecikmesidağıtılmış(ARDL)modellerinden faydalanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, ABD hisse senedi piyasasındaki değişimlerin BIST üzerinde kısa dönemde pozitifve uzun dönemde negatif etkilerinin olduğu ve bu etkilerin kısa dönemde asimetrik olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Buna ek olarak, hem ABD hisse senedi piyasasındaki belirsizliğin hem de FED politikalarındaki belirsizliğin BIST üzerinde asimetrik etkilere sahip olduğuve bu etkilerin kısa ve uzun dönemde önemli derecede farklı olduğubulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bulgularımız etkin yatırım stratejileri uygulamak ve küresel risklere karşı uygun ekonomi politikalarının belirlenmesi açısından önemli çıkarımlar içermektedir.

The Asymmetric Effects of Developments and Uncertainties in US Financial Markets on Borsa Istanbul

Inthis study, the effects of US stock market, US stock market uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s (FED) monetary policy uncertainty on Borsa Istanbul (BIST)are investigated. In this investigation, nonlinear and linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL and ARDL) models are used. It is observedthat changes in US stock market have positive and negative impactsontheBISTin theshort-and long-term, respectively,and theseeffects are asymmetric in the short-term. Furthermore, it is foundthat the uncertainties in the US stock market and the FED policies have different and asymmetric effects on the BIST in the short-andlong-term.Ourfindingshaveimportantimplicationsforimplementing effective investment strategies and determining appropriate economic policies against global risks.

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