Türkiye'de para politikalarının etkinliği açısından likidite etkisinin ölçülmesi

Merkez bankaları uygulayacakları para politikasına karar verirken ülkedeki parasal dinamiklerin faizlerle olan etkileşimini göz önünde bulundurmak durumundadırlar. Bu etkileşimden yola çıkarak likidite etkisinin araştırılması, ülkedeki makro ekonomik hedeflere ulaşılmasında hangi para politikası araçlarının ne şekilde kullanılması gerektiğine yardımcı olacaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de likidite etkisini ölçerek Türkiye CumhuriyetMerkez Bankasının uyguladığı para programlarının etkinliğini, geliştirilen yapısal VAR modeli aracılığıyla 1990:1-2007:3 dönemi için incelemektir. Geliştirilen model, likidite etkisini incelememize olanak tanıyarak bir yandan para politikasının etkinliğini değerlendirmek, diğer yandan para politikasının yürütülmesinde kullanılan parasal ölçütler ile diğer makro değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla kullanılabilmektedir. Faiz oranının, para politikasındaki bir şoka dinamik cevabı, dolaşımdaki nakit, serbest rezervler, M1 ve M2 gibi farklı parasal ölçütler kullanılarakincelenmiştir.Tahminsonuçlarınagöre,serbestrezervlerveM2’yeartışyönündeuygulananbirşokafaiz oranının tepkisi negatif olmuştur. Yaşanan parasal şokun diğer makro ekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkisi incelendiğinde teorik beklentilerin çoğunlukla doğrulandığı görülmüştür.

Measurment of liquidity effect from the view of the efficiency of monetary policies in Turkey

When deciding the monetary policies they implement, central banks have to take into account the interaction between the monetary dynamics and the interest rates. Therefore, the investigation of liquidity effect will help which monetary policy tolls should be used in what ways in order to reach the macroeconomic targets of the country in question. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of the monetary program between 1990:1-2007:3 period that the TurkishCentralBank has implemented bymeasuring the liquidity effect in Turkey, bymeans ofVARmethodology. The model enables us to examine the liquidity effect and not only helps to evaluate the effectiveness of the monetary policy but also examines the relationship between the monetary measures used in the implementation of monetary policies and the other macro variables. . Interest rates were examined in terms of a dynamic response to a shock in monetary policies, currency in circulation, free reserves and differentmonetarymeasures likeM1 andM2.According to the results of the estimates, the reaction of the interest rates to a shock applied to free reserves and M1 in an increasing trend was negative.When the impact of themonetary shock on the othermacro economic variables were examined, theoretical expectationsmostly came true.

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