Enflasyon Hedeflemesi ve Kriz: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte olan Ülkelerin Makroekonomik Performanslarının Panel Veriler Yaklaşımı Kullanılarak Analizi

Enflasyon hedeflemesi küresel finansal krizin ardından keskin eleştirilere uğradı. Bu makalede, enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulayan gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin küresel finansal kriz öncesi ve sonrasında makroekonomik performanslarını karşılaştırıyoruz. Her iki ülke grubu itibariyle, ciddi bir şokla karşılaşıldığında enflasyon hedeflemesinin ne düzeyde etkin bir politika olduğunu, panel veri yöntemini kullanarak, değerlendiriyoruz. Sonuçlarımız, enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulayan gelişmekte olan ülkelerin, gelişmiş ülkelere nazaran krizle daha olumlu başa çıkabildiklerini ve krizin ardından daha yüksek makroekonomik performans gösterdiklerini ortaya koymuştur. Enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulayan gelişmekte olan ülkelerin gösterdiği makroekonomik performansta, enflasyon hedeflemesi ve konjonktür karşıtı mali politika tepkilerinin rol oynadığı görülmüştür. Bu bağlamda, küresel finansal kriz tek başına fiyat istikrarının sağlanmasının finansal istikrar ve büyüme için yeterli olmadığını göstermiştir. Enflasyon hedeflemesinin geleceği açısından temel sorun ise, enflasyon hedeflemesinin finansal istikrarı içerecek şekilde genişletilmesidir.

Does the Global Financial Crisis Matter for the Macro Economic Performance of Inflation Targeting in Advanced and Developing Countries?: A Panel Study

Inflation targeting has come under sharp attack in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In this paper we compare the macroeconomic performances of advanced and developing inflation targeting countries before and after the global financial crisis. Using a panel data methodology, we assess the effectiveness of the inflation targeting framework in both country groups when confronting a serious shock. Our results demonstrate that developing inflation targeting countries seem to have performed better in handling the global financial crisis and to have outperformed their advanced peers in the aftermath of the crisis. We argue that the performance of developing inflation targeting countries has arisen from an inflation targeting framework and countercyclical fiscal policy. The global financial crisis also reveals that price stability is not enough to secure financial stability and growth. The main issue for the future of inflation targeting is to incorporate financial stability

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