Sayım IŞIK, Koray DUMAN

Enflasyon Hedeflemesi ve Dalgalı Döviz Kuru: Bazı Ülke Deneyimleri

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini kabul etmiş bazı ülkelerde döviz kuru politikası ile enflasyon hedeflemesi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek ve bu ülke deneyimlerinden bazı dersler çıkarmaktır. Dalgalı döviz kuru ve enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini benimsemiş ülke deneyimleri olumlu sonuçlar vermektedir. Enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin kredibilitesi, enflasyonu ve döviz kurundan enflasyona geçişkenliği azaltmaktadır. Dalgalı döviz kuru ve enflasyon hedeflemesi politikaları, özel sektörün döviz kuru riskini içselleştirmesine büyük katkı sağlamaktadır. Özel sektör, döviz kuru belirsizliği ile mücadele etmeyi öğrenmektedir. Finansal piyasalar gelişirken, döviz piyasasına müdahalelerinin etkinliği azalmaktadır. Güçlü finansal piyasalar, türev piyasalarındaki önemli gelişmeler, döviz kurundaki enflasyona geçişkenlikteki azalma, para politikalarının etkinliğinin artmasına katkı sağlamakta ve döviz piyasalarına müdahale etme gerekçelerini azaltmaktadır. Döviz piyasasına merkez bankalarının döviz piyasalarına müdahaleleri, büyük ölçüde döviz kurundaki oynaklığa odaklanmaktadır.

Inflation Targeting and Floating Exchange Rate: Experiences of Some Countries

The basic aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between inflation targeting and exchange rate policy for some countries adopting inflation targeting and to draw some lessons from these experiences. Experiences of floating exchange rate and inflation targeting regime have shown positive results. Credibility of inflation targeting regime has decreased inflation and pass-through from exchange to inflation. Inflation targeting and floating exchange rate policy have contributed a great deal to the internalisation of foreign exchange risk by the private sector. Private sector has learned to cope with foreign exchange uncertainty. While financial markets develop, foreign exchange interventions appear to be less and less effective. Strong financial markets, important progress in derivatives market deepening and a lower pass-through from exchange rate to inflation have contributed to increasing the effectiveness of monetary policies and decreased motives for foreign exchange intervention over time. Interventions of central banks in foreign exchange markets are more likely to focus on dampening exchange rate volatility.

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