OECD Ülkelerinde Ticari Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Amaç: Bu araştırmanın amacı 1997-2020 yılları arasında Ekonomik İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Teşkilatı (OECD) ülkeleri için ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Tasarım/Yöntem: Bu çalışmada ilgili literatürden yararlanılarak Cobb-Douglas üretim fonksiyonu ticari açıklık değişkeni eklenerek genişletilmiştir. Panel veri analiz yöntemi kullanılan çalışmada Westerlund eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış ve seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Sonrasında değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünün tespit edilmesi için Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular: Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre dışa açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. AMG tahmincisi (Augmented Mean Group Estimator) sonuçlarına göre panelin genelinde ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Sınırlılıklar: OECD üyesi ülkelerde kullanılan değişkenlere ait verilerin eksiksiz olarak ele alınması için analiz 1997 yılından başlanmıştır. Özgünlük/Değer: Ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi her ülkede olumlu ve olumsuz anlamda farklılık göstermektedir. Bu nedenle dışa açılmanın büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin ülke ve ülke gruplarında nasıl bir etkiye sahip olduğunu tespit etmek önemlidir. OECD örnekleminde bu konunun araştırılmaya devam edilmesi alana katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ticari Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Dış Ticaret, Panel Veri Analizi, Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Nedensellik Testi

The Relationship Between Trade Openness and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Purpose: The aim of this research is to analyze the effect of trade openness on economic growth for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries between 1997-2020. Design/Methodology: In this study, the Cobb-Douglas production function was expanded by adding the trade openness variable following the relevant literature. In the study using panel data analysis method, Westerlund cointegration test was applied. Afterwards, Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Test was applied to determine the direction of causality relationship between variables. Findings: Westerlund cointegration test was applied and a cointegration relationship was found between the series. According to the causality test results, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between trade openness and economic growth. According to the results of the AMG estimator (Augmented Mean Group Estimator), it was concluded that trade openness positively affects economic growth throughout the panel. Limitations: The analysis started in 1997 in order to obtain the complete data for the variables used in OECD member countries. Originality/Value: The effect of trade openness on economic growth differs in each country in positive and negative terms. Therefore, it is important to determine how the effects of openness on growth have an impact on countries and country groups. It is expected that continuing to research this subject in the OECD sample will contribute to the field.

Keywords:

Trade Openness, Economic Growth, International Trade, Panel Data Analysis, Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Test.,

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