Nahar-Inder Tekniği ile Seçili Avrupa Ülkelerinde Kişi Başı Karbondioksit Yakınsama Analizi

Bu çalışmada iklim değişikliğinin başlıca nedeni olan CO2 salınımlarının 17 Avrupa ülkesinde 1946-2019 dönemine ait verilerle yakınsama davranışı gösterip göstermediği incelenmiştir. Çalışmada ADF doğrusal birim kök testi, LNV (1998), KSS (2003) ve Sollis (2009) doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ve birim kök olması durumunda bile yakınsamaya izin veren Nahar-Inder (2002) tekniği kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, ADF testinde 12, LNV (1998) testinde 6, KSS (2003) testinde 10 ve Sollis (2009) testinde 9 ülke yakınsama davranışı sergilerken, Nahar-Inder (2002) tekniğine göre 17 ülkenin 16’sında yakınsama davranışı gözlemlenmiştir. Buradan hareketle Nahar-Inder (2002) tekniğinin birim kök testlerine göre daha güçlü sonuçlar verdiği söylenebilir. Bu tespit, fosil yakıt kullanımına bağlı çevresel bozulmaların önlemesine yönelik uluslararası anlaşmalara taraf olan ülkelerin ortak politikalar uygulayabilecekleri şeklinde değerlendirilebilir. Bu çerçevede iklim değişikliği ile mücadelede uluslararası anlaşmaların genişletilmesi ve yaptırım gücünü artıracak hüküm ve kurumların oluşturulması gerektiği çalışmanın politika önerisi olarak sunulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Karbondioksit emisyonu, yakınsama hipotezi, doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri, Nahar-Inder (2002) testi

Convergence Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Per Capita through the Nahar-Inder Technique in Selected European Countries

In this study, it was examined whether CO2 emissions, which are the main cause of climate change, show convergence behavior with data for the period of 1946-2019 in 17 European countries. In the study, ADF linear unit root test, LNV (1998), KSS (2003) and Sollis (2009) nonlinear unit root tests and Nahar-Inder (2002) technique which allows convergence even in the case of unit root were used. According to the findings obtained, 12 countries exhibited convergence behavior in ADF test, 6 in LNV (1998) test, 10 in KSS (2003) test and 9 in Sollis (2009) test, while convergence behavior was observed in 16 of 17 countries according to Nahar-Inder (2002) technique. Based on this, it can be said that the Nahar-Inder (2002) technique gives stronger results compared to unit root tests. This determination can be assessed in the form that countries that are parties to international agreements aimed at preventing environmental degradation related to the use of fossil fuels can implement common policies. Within this framework, it is presented as a policy proposal of the study that international agreements on combating climate change should be expanded and provisions and institutions that will increase the power of sanctions should be created.

Keywords:

Carbon dioxide emission, convergence hypothesis, nonlinear unit root tests, Nahar-Inder (2002) test,

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