Güven KAYA

Conformable Kesirli Mertebeden COVID-19 Modelinin Reel Veriye Bağlı Kaotik Davranışları ve Kaos Kontrolü

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Covid-19 virüsünün yayılımı hakkında tahminde bulunabilmek için tanımlanmış olan bir matematiksel modelin Conformable kesirsel mertebeli halinin kompleks davranışlarını incelemektir. Bunu yaparken model tam değer sabitlerinin kullanılmasına dayalı bir süreçten geçirilerek fark denklem sistemine dönüştürülmüştür. Daha sonra bu yeni sistemin dinamik davranışları incelenmiş, sistemde Neimark-Sacker çatallanması oluştuğu gösterilmiştir. Ayrıca sistemde ortaya çıkan kaosun ve çatallanmanın kontrolü için sisteme iki farklı kaos kontrol stratejisi uygulanmıştır. Son olarak bulunan bütün bu analitik sonuçların doğruluğu parametre değerleri reel verilerden alınarak nümerik simülasyonlar ile gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Covid-19, Conformable Kesirli Mertebeden Türev, Kararlılık, Çatallanma, Kaos Kontrol.

Chaotic Behaviours and Chaos Control of a Conformable Fractional Order COVID-19 Model with Reel Data

The aim of this study is to examine the complex behavior of the Conformable fractional order of a mathematical model that has been defined to make predictions about the spread of the Covid-19 virus. For this purpose, the model is transformed into a difference equation system. Then, the dynamic behavior of this new system is examined and it is shown that Neimark-Sacker bifurcation occurred in the system. In addition, two different chaos control strategies have been applied to the system to control the chaos and bifurcation that occur in the system. Finally, the accuracy of all these analytical results are shown with numerical simulations by taking the parameter values from real data.

Keywords:

Covid-19, Conformable Fractional Derivative, Stability, Bifurcation, Chaos Control.,

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