Bir Fotovoltaik Güç Sisteminin Üretiminin Çok Boyutlu Tahmin Filtreleri ile Modellenmesi

Akıl l ı şebekeler i le birlikte farklı üretim kaynaklarının şebekeye entegre edilebilmesi, yenilenebilir enerjika yna klarını daha da özel bir noktaya getirmiştir. Bu kaynakların hem sürdürülebilir hem de çevre dostuol maları en büyük a vantajlarıdır. En önemli yenilenebilir enerji kayna kl a rında n bi ri s i ol a n güneşten,el ektrik üretecek bi r s i s temi n ta s a rımı ve yöneti mi i çi n bu s i s temden üreti l ecek gücün ta hmi nedi lebilmesi oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Afyon Kocatepesi Üniversitesi kampüs alanına tesis edilmişbi r güneş enerji sisteminin üretiminin doğru bir şekilde ta hmi n edi l mes i a ma çl a nmıştır. Bu a ma çl aüreti m tesisinden toplanan bir yıl lık veriler kullanılmış ve modelleme için çok boyutlu doğrus a l ta hmi nfi l treleri (MDLPF) kullanılmıştır. Saatlik olarak toplanan bir yıllık sıcaklık, üretim ve güneş ışınımı verileri ,s a tırları günlere, sütunları saatlere karşılık gelen resimlere çevrilmiş ve uygun filtre şablonu kullanıla ra kgüç s i steminin üretimi modellenmiştir. El de edilen sonuçlar MDLP fi ltrelerin güç s i s temi ni n üreti mi nimodel l emedeki ba şa rıs ını orta ya koymuştur.

Modeling of a Photovoltaic Power Unit’s Generation by Multi- dimensional Linear Prediction Filters

Integration of different production resources to the gri d by the development on smart gri ds, renewable energy resources ha ve been brought to a more s peci fi c poi nt. The grea tes t a dva nta ge of thes e res ources i s that they a re both s ustainable a nd environmentall y fri endl y. To des i gn a nd ma na ge a n el ectricity production system from the s un whi ch i s one of the mos t i mporta nt renewa bl e energy s ources, prediction of the energy which will be produced is very i mportant. In this s tudy, i t i s a i med to predi ct the production of the solar energy s ystem that is built on ca mpus a rea of the Afyon Koca tepe Uni versity. For this purpose, one-year data collected from PV s ystem is us ed a nd mul ti -di mens i ona l l i near prediction filters a re used for modeling. One year temperature, production a nd s ol a r ra di a ti on da ta which are collected hourly, a re converted to i mages which one’s rows and columns correspond to da ys a nd hour, respectively a nd the production of the power sys tem is modeled by us i ng proper fi l ter template. Obtained results prove that the MDLP fi l ters ha ve a good performa nce on model i ng the producti on of the power s ys tem.

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