SAĞLIK HARCAMALARI, EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE CO2 EMİSYONU: OECD ÜLKELERİNDEN KANITLAR

Bu çalışmada seçilmiş 26 OECD ülkesinin 1992 ile 2014 dönemi arasında sağlık harcamaları, ekonomik büyüme ve CO2 emisyonu arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla kullanılacak panel yöntemlerini seçebilmek için değişkenlerin ve panelin yatay kesit bağımlılığı belirlenmiştir. Değişkenlerde ve panelde yatay kesit bağımlılığı olması sebebiyle kullanılan panel birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testinin ikinci nesil testlerden seçilmiştir. Değişkenlerin I(1) mertebede durağanlıkları tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca modelde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme katsayılarının tahmin sonuçlarına göre ekonomik büyüme ve CO2 emisyonunun esneklik katsayıları sırasıyla 0.188 ve 0.012 olarak tahmin edilmiştir. VECM Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre ekonomik büyüme sağlık harcamalarının nedenseli, CO2 emisyonu sağlık harcamalarının nedenseli, ekonomik büyüme CO2 emisyonunun nedenselidir. Uzun dönem nedensellik analizine göre ise ekonomik büyüme ve CO2 emisyonundan sağlık harcamalarına doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Sağlık harcamaları, ekonomik büyüme, CO2 emisyonu, OECD ülkeleri, VECM Granger nedensellik analizi

HEALTH EXPENDITURE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND CO2 EMISSIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE OECD COUNTRIES

The present study investigates the correlation between health expenditure, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in 26 OECD countries during the period of 1992-2014. First of all, cross-sectional dependence of the variables and the panel was assessed with a view to identify the panel methods usable for this purpose. Given the prevalence of cross-sectional dependence regarding the variables and the panel, the panel unit root and cointegration test was chosen from among second generation tests. The variables were found to be stationary at order I(1). Moreover, the model was found to exhibit a cointegration relationship. In the light of estimations of the cointegration factors, the elasticity coefficients of economic growth and CO2 emissions were predicted to be 0.188 and 0.012 respectively. According to the results of VECM Granger causality analysis, economic growth as well as CO2 emissions are causative with respect to health expenditure, whereas economic growth, once again, is causative with respect to CO2 emissions. A long-term causality analysis, in turn, revealed a direct correlation whereby economic growth and CO2 emissions lead to increased health expenditure.

Keywords:

Health expenditure, economic growth, CO2 emission, OECD countries, VECM Granger causality analysis,

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