TÜRKİYE’DE DÖVİZ KURU KANALININ İŞLEYİŞİ: VAR MODELİ İLE BİR ANALİZ

Öz Para politikası kararlarındaki değişikliklerin reel değişkenlerin yanı sıra fiyat seviyesini etkileme süreci, parasal aktarım kavramı ile ifade edilir. Faiz oranı kanalı, varlık fiyatları kanalı, döviz kuru kanalı, kredi kanalı ve beklenti kanalı başlıca aktarım kanallarıdır. Uluslararası entegrasyon ve ekonomilerin dışa açıklık derecelerinin artması döviz kuru kanalının önemini göreli olarak artırmıştır. Açık ekonomilerde para politikası kararlarındaki bir değişiklik, döviz kuru kanalı ile hem hasıla hem de fiyat seviyesini etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada döviz kuru kanalının işleyişi Türkiye özelinde incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla 1995:1 – 2006:12 dönemine ilişkin aylık veriler VAR metodolojisi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye’de döviz kuru kanalı işlemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Parasal Aktarım Kanalları, Döviz Kuru Kanalı, VAR Modeli, Para Politikası

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