Covid-19 Pandemisinin Seçilmiş Borsa Endeksleri Üzerine Etkisinin İncelenmesi

2019 yılının sonlarında Çin’in Wuhan şehrinde görülen ve tüm dünyaya yayılarak küresel bir sorun haline gelen ölümcül ve bulaşıcı özelliğe sahip Covid-19 hastalığının bireyleri, ülkeleri ve dünya ekonomisini olumsuz yönde etkileyeceği tahmin edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada Covid-19’un finansal piyasalara etkisini incelemek amacıyla vakaların ülkelerde ilk görülmeye başladığı tarihten 08.04.2020 tarihine kadar toplam vaka sayısı ve toplam ölüm sayısına göre hastalığın en fazla görüldüğü 11 ülke incelenmiştir. Covid-19 toplam vaka sayısı ile 11 ülkenin en önemli endekslerinin kapanış fiyatları arasındaki ilişki belirlemek için Bayer ve Hanck (2012) eşbütünleşme analizi kullanılmıştır. Araştırma; Çin (Shangai), ABD (DOW 30), İngiltere (FTSE 100), İtalya (FTSE MIB), İspanya (IBEX 35), Almanya (DAX), Fransa (CAC 40), Belçika (BEL 20), Hollanda (AEX), İsviçre (SMI) ve Türkiye (BIST 100) endekslerinden oluşmaktadır. Analiz sonucunda Covid-19 toplam vaka sayısı ile BİST100, FTSE MIB, IBEX35, AEX ve Shangai endeksleri arasında eşbütünleşme olduğu, DAX, CAC 40, BEL 20, SMI, FTSE 100 ve DOW 30 endeksleri arasında ise eşbütünleşme olmadığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Covid-19, Hisse Senedi Fiyatları, Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Examining The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemics Upon Selected Share Indices

Appearing in the city of Wuhan, China in the late by the end of 2019 and becoming a global problem by spreading all over the world, the disease of Covid-19, with its features of being deadly and contagious, is estimated to influence individuals, countries and global economy negatively. In the present study, eleven countries where the highest rate of cases was experienced in accordance with total number of cases and total number of deaths were examined from the date when the cases were first observed to April, 8, 2020 with the aim of analyzing the effects of Covid-19 upon financial markets. So as to determine the relationship between total number of cases resulting from Covid-19 and closing prices of the most significant indices belonging to those eleven countries, the present study utilized from Bayer and Hanck (2012) cointegration analysis. The research involved the indices of China (Shangai), the USA (DOW 30), England (FTSE 100), Italy (FTSE MIB), Spain (IBEX 35), Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Belgium (BEL 20), Netherlands (AEX), Switzerland (SMI) and Turkey (BIST 100). The analysis results revealed that a cointegration existed between total number of cases resulting from Covid-19 and the indices of BIST100, FTSE MIB, IBEX35, AEX and Shangai while no cointegration was observed with those of DAX, CAC 40, BEL 20, SMI, FTSE 100 and DOW 30.

Keywords:

Covid-19, Share Prices, Cointegration Analysis,

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