ASYA PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE ULUSLARARASI TURİZM GELİRLERİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BİR PANELVERİ ANALİZİ

Bu araştırmada turizm gelirleri ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Analiz, seçilmiş 21 Asya Pasifik Ülkesi için 1995 ile 2017 arasındaki 23 yıllık dönemi kapsamaktadır. Seriler arasında kısa dönemli nedensellik Dumitrescu & Hurlin VAR Panel Nedensellik Analizi ile incelenmiştir. Kısa dönem analiz sonucuna göre; (a) turizm gelirleri ekonomik büyümenin Granger nedenidir ve (b) ekonomik büyüme turizm gelirlerinin Granger nedenidir sonucuna varılmıştır. Buna göre kısa dönemde ekonomik büyüme ile turizm gelirleri arasında iki yönlü pozitif bir ilişki vardır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı Westerlund ECM Panel Co-Integration Test ve Pesaran Smith Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi ile incelenmiştir. Uzun dönem analiz sonuçlarına göre; (a) ekonomik büyüme turizm gelirlerini etkilemektedir: ekonomik büyümedeki %1'lik bir artış/azalış, turizm gelirlerini % 1,9 arttırmakta/azaltmaktadır, (b) turizm gelirleri ekonomik büyümeyi etkilemektedir: turizm gelirlerindeki % 1'lik bir artış/azalış, ekonomik büyümeyi % 0,49 arttırmakta/azaltmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, uluslararası turizm gelirleri ile iktisadi büyüme arasında çift yönlü ilişki olduğunu öne süren “geri bildirim hipotezini” desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İktisadi Büyüme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Turizm Gelirleri

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RECEIPTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIA PACIFIC COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

In this research, the short-term and the long-term relationships between tourism receipts and economic growth was investigated. The dataset includes 483 observations for the period from 1995 to 2017 of selected 21 Asia Pacific Economies. According to “Dumitrescu & Hurlin VAR Panel Causality Test”, which is employed to analyse the short-term causality, it is revealed that (a) tourism receipts is the granger cause of economic growth, and (b) “economic growth is the granger cause of tourism receipts. Hence, it is concluded a bi-directional causality between tourism receipts and economic growth in the short-term. Westerlund ECM Panel Co-Integration Test and Pesaran & Smith Mean Group Estimator, which are performed to test the long-term relationship, indicated that (a) economic growth affects tourism revenues; a 1% increase in economic growth raises tourism revenues by 1.9% in long-term and vice versa, (b) tourism revenues affects economic growth; a 1% increase in tourism revenues raises the economic growth by 0.49 % in long-term, and vice versa. These results support the feedback hypothesis that claims a bi-directional relationship between international tourism receipts and economic growth.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Tourism Receipts,

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