Türkiye'de Kayıtdışı Ekonomi ve Büyüme: İlişkisi

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1975-2005 arası dönem için kayıtdışı ekonomi ile büyüme arasındaki ilişki test edilmeye çalışılmaktadır. Bu çerçevede öncelikle Fiege’nin basit ve geliştirilmiş parasal oran yöntemine göre kayıtdışı ekonominin büyüklüğü tahmin edilmektedir. Elde edilen kayıtdışı ekonomi rakamları ile kayıtdışı ekonomi ve büyüme arasındaki ilişki Granger Nedensellik Analiziyle test edilmektedir. Kayıtdışı ekonominin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ise regresyon analizi ile ortaya konmaktadır. Yapılan hesaplamalara göre Türkiye’de kayıtdışı ekonominin büyüklüğü basit oran yöntemine göre %7 ile %46 arasında, geliştirilmiş oran yöntemine göre %17 ile %139 arasında değişen değerler almaktadır. Granger Nedensellik Testi sonucuna göre kayıtdışı ekonomiden ekonomik büyümeye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Yapılan regresyon analizi sonucunda kayıtdışı ekonominin büyüme üzerinde pozitif bir etki meydana getirdiğine yönelik bulgular elde edilmiştir.

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