Burcu GEDİZ ORAL, Tuğba ARPAZLI FAZLILAR

Türkiye ve PIIGS Ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Hipotezinin Testi: Panel Veri Analizi

Bu çalışma 1986-2018 döneminde Türkiye ve PIIGS (Portekiz, İrlanda, İtalya, Yunanistan, İspanya) ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğini test etmektedir. Ülkelere ait 33 yıllık verilerde rasgele dağılım gösteren eksik gözlemler bulunmaktadır. Bu nedenle çalışma dengesiz panel veri analizine uygun gerçekleştirilmiştir. Veri koşullarına uygun olarak, otokorelasyon ve birim kök testlerinin ardından, kısa ve uzun dönemli katsayıların tahmini için Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup Tahmincileri (PMGs) kullanılmıştır. Modelde uzun dönemde panel ortalaması için İkiz Açık Hipotezi doğrulanmıştır. Ancak modelin birimlere özgü sonuçlarına bakıldığında İrlanda, İtalya, Yunanistan ve İspanya için uzun dönemli katsayılar anlamlı çıkmıştır. Portekiz ve Türkiye için kısa ya da uzun dönemli anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: İkiz Açık, Türkiye, PIIGS, PMGs JEL Sınıflandırması:H62, F00, E60, C23

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ikiz açık, Türkiye, PIIGS, Sistem GMM, PMGs

Testing of Twin Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey and PIIGS Countries: Panel Data Analysis

This study tests the validity of Twin Deficit Hypotesis for Turkey and PIIGS (Portugues, İreland, İtaly, Gereece, Spain) for period 1986-2018. There are incomplete observations showing random distribution in 33 years of data for countries. For this reason, the study was carried out in accordance with the unbalanced panel data analysis. Following autocorrelation and unit root tests in accordance with the data conditions, we have used Pooled Mean Group Estimators (PMGs) for estimation of short and long term coefficients. In the model, the Twin Deficit Hypothesis was confirmed for the panel mean in the long run. However, when the unit-specific results of the model are examined, the long-term coefficients for Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are significant. No significant short- or long-term relationship could be found for Portugal and Turkey. Key Words: Twin Deficit, Turkey, PIIGS, PMGS JEL Classification: H62, F00, E60, C23

Keywords:

Twin Deficit, Turkey, PIIGS, PMGS,

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