Enerji piyasası reformlarının elektrik enerjisi piyasasına etkisi: EÜAŞ ve ayrıcaklı şirketler üzerine bir analiz

1980’li yıllarda baslayan özellestirme ve serbestlestirme politika ve uygulamalarının önemli bir ayagını elektrik enerjisi piyasaları olusturmus, bu konuda pek çok önemli kanun yürürlüge konmus ve piyasaların isleyisine iliskin önemli degisiklikler yapılmıstır. Ancak enerji piyasası reformları baslıgı altında toplanan bu köklü degisikliklerin saglıklı bir enerji piyasası olusturulması için yeterli olup olmadıgı hala tartısma konusudur. Bu çalısmada Türkiye’de elektrik üretimini gerçeklestiren kuruluslardan EÜAS ve ayrıcalıklı sirketlerin üretimlerine iliskin 1970- 2007 yılları arasında 38 yılı kapsayan üretim verileri veriler kullanılmıs, bu veriler bir takım istatistiki ve görsel testlerden geçirilerek analizde kullanılacak olan ARIMA Modeline uygun hale getirilmistir. Sonrasında veriler kullanılarak olusturulan modeller içerisinde en uygunu seçilerek müdahale analizine geçilmistir. Bu asamada modele kukla degiskenler ilave edilerek reformların etkisi sınanmıstır. Sonuç olarak reformların EÜAS ve ayrıcalıklı sirketlerin elektrik üretimleri üzerinde nasıl bir etkiye sahip olduguna iliskin eldeki bulgular yorumlanmıs, mevcut reformların söz konusu kurulusların elektrik enerjisi üretimi üzerinde kısa vadede olumlu bir etkiye sahip olmadıgı ortaya konmustur.

Reforms the effects of the energy market reforms on electricity market: The case of EUAS and privileged companies

The market of electricity energy formed an important step of the policy and implementation of privatization and liberalization beginning on 1980's and very important laws were put into force about this issue and some important changes about running of the markets were made. However, the matter whether the radical changes collected under the heading “Reforms for Energy Market” are sufficient or not for forming a healthy energy marker is still under discussion. In this study the generation data covering 38 years between 1970 - 2007 about the total electricity generation, electricity generation of Electricity Generation Co. Inc.(EUAS) and privileged companies, an establishment generating electricity, were used and they were made suitable to the ARIMA Model, which will be used during analysis, subjecting these data to some statistical and visual tests. Following this, selecting the best one in the model formed, it was gone to intervention analysis. In this stage, adding the dummy variables to the model, the influence of the reforms was tested. As a conclusion, the available findings about how the reforms have an effect on the electricity generations of the EUAS and privileged companies generating energy were interpreted and it was suggested that it had not a significant and positive effect in the short term.

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