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Dengeleme Teorisi'nin Geç erliliğinin Panel Veri Analiziile Test Edilmesi: BİST'de Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Bu çalışma, firmaların sermaye yapıları ile piyasa değerleri arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyerekdengeleme teorisinin, BİSTde geçerliliği olan bir teori olup olmadığını test etmeyi amaç edinmiştir.Çalışmada, 2005 -2011 yılları arasında hisseleri Borsa İstanbulda işlem gören 168 firmaya aittoplam 127.008 adet finansal rasyo, 20.664 adet aylık hisse getirisi ile 4.704 adet firma piyasadeğeri ve borçlanma oranı kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın birinci aşamasında, dengeli panel regresyonanalizi kullanılarak BİST için etkin iflas göstergesi modeli belirlenmiştir. İkinci aşamada ise etkinmodel kullanılarak firmalar, her dönem için, iflas riskine sahip olan ve olmayan firmalar olarak ikiana gruba ayrılmış ve gruplarda yer alan firmaların piyasa değerleri ile borçlanma düzeyleriarasındaki ilişki dengesiz panel regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda; heriki grup için de firmaların borçlanma düzeyleri ile piyasa değerleri arasında pozitif bir ilişkibulunmuş ve dengeleme teorisinin BİSTde işlem gören firmalar açısından geçerli bir teori olmadığıortaya konulmuştur.

Testing the Validity of Trade- Off Theory by Using Panel RegressionAnalysis: An Empirical Application on ISE

The aim of this study is to test the validity of Trade -Off theory by investigating therelationship between capital structures and market values of firms on ISE. In this study, 127.008financial ratio, 20.664 monthly stock return, 4.704 market value and debt ratio which are belong to168 firms traded on ISE between 2005 and 2011 is used. Firstly, efficient model predictingbankruptcy is confirmed by using balanced panel regression analysis for ISE. Secondly, by usingefficient model, firms are divided two groups that consist of firms which have or not bankruptcy riskfor each period and the relatio nship market values and debt levels of firms in each group isanalyzed by using unbalanced panel regression analysis. The results of the analysis reveal thatthere is positive relationship between market values and debt levels of firms in terms of both gro ups.This result implies that Trade -Off theory is not validity on ISE.

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