Hamdi EMEÇ, Nilgün ACAR BALAYLAR, Eda YALÇIN KAYACAN

2008 Küresel Krizi Bağlamında Döviz Kurları ve Türkiye'de Dövize Endeksli Banka Kredileri Arasındaki Eştümleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi

Türkiye'de dövize endeksli kredi kullanan tüketicilerin önemli bir kısmı, ABD'de 2008 yılında yaşanan ekonomik kriz öncesi, faiz avantajından yararlanmak amacıyla, uluslararası piyasalarda Amerikan Doları ve Euro'ya nazaran daha az dalgalanan ve istikrarlı paralar olarak bilinen Japon Yeni ve İsviçre Frang'ına dayalı kredileri tercih etmişlerdir. Yaşanan kriz sonucunda ise, birçok gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkedeki finansal piyasalar olumsuz yönde etkilenmiştir. Krizle birlikte döviz kurlarında önemli dalgalanmaların gerçekleşmesi, düşük faizle kredi kullanım imkanı sağlayan dövize endeksli kredi kullanıcılarının daha önce yaşanan ekonomik krizlerde olduğu gibi bu krizde mağdur olmalarına yol açmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı, 2004:10- 2017:06 dönemleri arasında, Türkiye'de döviz kurlarıyla kredi türleri arasında uzun dönemde ilişkinin varlığını sınamak ve aralarındaki nedensellik durumlarını incelemektir. Analizimizde aylık frekanstaki veriler için Japon Yeni/Türk Lirası (JPY/TL), Amerikan Doları/Türk Lirası (USD/ TL), İsviçre Frangı/ Türk Lirası (CHF/TL) ve Euro/Türk lirası (EUR/TL) ile banka konut kredisi, taşıt kredisi, ihtiyaç kredisi, kurumsal krediler ve kredi kartı kullanım miktarları kullanılmıştır. Yapılan testler sonucunda taşıt kredileri dışında tüm krediler ile döviz kurları arasında uzun dönemde bir ilişkinin olduğu sonucu elde edilmiş olup, Türkiye'de 2008 krizinin önceki krizlerdeki gibi kredi kullanan tüketicileri mağdur ettiği ortaya konmuştur.

The Relationship of Cointegration and Causality Between The Foreign Exchange Loans in Turkey and The Exchange Rates In The 2008 Global Economic Crisis

The customers who use the foreign exchange loans in our country in order to benefit from the interest advantage before the economic crisis experienced in 2008 in USA prefer the loans such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, which are less fluctuating in the international markets compared to US Dollar and Euro. As a result of the crisis, the financial markets in many developed and underdeveloped countries were negatively affected. The foreign exchange loans, which were given to the customers at low interest rates and they were used especially for housing needs, the users of credit suffered from the economic crisis because of appreciation of foreign currencies against the Turkish Lira. The aim of the study is to examine the existence of the long-term relationships and causalities between the foreign exchange loans and the exchange rates for the period of between 2004:10 and 2017:06 by using variables such as the interest rates of housing, vehicle, consumer loans and exchange rates. As a result of the tests made, it is concluded that there is a long term relationship between the residential loans and the exchange rates and the existence of the victimization created by the 2008 crisis in our country is revealed.

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