TÜRKİYE’DE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİNİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Türkiye son yıllarda hızlı nüfus artışı, hızlı kentleşme ve sanayileşme ile karşı karşıyadır. Bu durum yıllar içinde enerjiye olan talebi arttırmaktadır. Diğer taraftan Türkiye, enerjide önemli oranda dışa bağımlı bir ülkedir. Dolayısıyla enerji tüketiminin belirleyicilerinin tespit edilmesi, enerjinin daha verimli kullanılmasına yönelik politikaların geliştirilmesi açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada 1980-2020 yıllarına dair verilere dayanılarak Türkiye’de enerji tüketiminin belirleyicileri ARDL Sınır Testi ve Toda- Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak fosil kaynaklı enerji tüketimi; bağımsız değişken olarak ise GSYİH, ihracat oranı ve sabit sermaye yatırımlarının GSYİH’ye oranı analize dahil edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyümedeki %1’lik artış enerji tüketimini %0,34 arttırmaktadır. İhracatta %1’lik bir artış uzun dönemde enerji tüketimini %0,57 oranında, sabit sermaye yatırımlarındaki %1’lik artış ise %0,15 oranında arttırmaktadır. Yapılan nedensellik analizi sonucu GSYİH artışından enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Sabit sermaye yatırımları ve ihracattan enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik varlığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enerji Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları, İhracat, ARDL Sınır Testi

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

Turkey has experienced rapid population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization in recent years. Therefore, Turkey's demand for energy has been increasing over the years. Also the main issue is Turkey's foreign dependency on energy resources. Researching the determinants of energy consumption is important in terms of developing policies for more efficient use of energy. For this reason, the determinants of energy consumption in Turkey were analyzed using the ARDL Boundary Test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, based on data from 1980-2020. While fossil fuel energy consumption as the dependent variable in the model, GDP, export rate and the ratio of fixed capital investments to GDP are independent variables. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a longrun relationship between the variables. An increase in economic growth by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.34%. An increase in exports by 1 percent increases energy consumption by 0.57% in the long run while an increase in fixed capital investments by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.15%. As a result of the causality analysis, it was concluded that there is one-way causality from GDP growth to energy consumption. It has been determined that there is a one-way causality running from fixed capital investments and exports to energy consumption.

Keywords:

Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Fixed Capital Investments, Export, ARDL Bound Test,

PDF

___

Abosedra, S. and Baghestani, H. (1989) “New Evi¬dence On The Causal Relationship Between United States Energy Consumption and Gross National Product”, Journal of Energy and Development, 1989, 14 (2): 285-292.
Altınay, G. and Karagöl, E. (2004) “Structural Break, Unit Root and the Causality Between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey”, Energy Economics, 26: 985-994.
Altuğ, N., and Demirtaş, I. (2021) “Sınır Ötesi Ham Petrol Boru Hattı Yatırımları ve Teorik İncelemesi: BTC ve Kerkük-Yumurtalık Ham Petrol Boru Hatları Örneği”, JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 6(2): 247-261.
Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000) “The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices And Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From Asian Developing Countries”, Energy Economics, 22(6): 615-625.
Aytaç, D. (2010) “Enerji ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin çok değişkenli VAR yaklaşımı ile tahmini”, Maliye Dergisi, 158(1): 482-495.
BP (2023), BP Energy Outlook, https://www.bp.com.
Demirtaş, I., and Tarı, E. N. (2021) “Türkiye’de Elektrik Piyasasının Rekabete Açılması ve Rekabetçi Elektrik Piyasasında Elektrik Tüketiminin Belirleyicileri: ARDL Sınır Testi”, JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 6(1): 148-164.
Demirtaş, I., Yıldırım, D. Ç., and Yıldırım, S. (2021) “Türkiye’de Sanayileşme ve Kadın Emeği İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”, Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 57-71.
Erol, U., and Yu, E. S. (1987),“On the causal relationship between energy and income for industrialized countries”, The Journal of Energy and Development, 113-122.
Esen, Ö. (2016) “Security of the energy supply in Turkey: Prospects, challenges and opportunities”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(2): 281-289.
Fernandes, K., and Reddy, Y. V. (2021) “Determinants of energy consumption in newly industrialised countries of Asia”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(1): 93-100.
Ghali, K.H. and El-Sakka, M.I.T. (2004) “Energy Use And Output Growth İn Canada: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis”, Energy Economics, 26(2): 225-238.
IEA (2021) “Key World Energy Statistics 2021”.
IEA (2023) “World Energy Balances: Overview”, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-balances-overview.
Karagöl, E., Erbaykal, E. and Ertuğrul, H. M. (2007) “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ile Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8 (1): 72-80.
Katırcıoğlu, S., Fethi, S., Kalmaz, D. B. and Çağlar, D. (2016) “Interactions Between Energy Consumption, International Trade, And Real Income in Canada: An Empirical Investigation from A New Version of the Solow Growth Model”, International Journal Of Green Energy, 13(10): 1059-1074.
Khanal, A. (2021) “The Role Of ICT And Energy Consumption On Carbon Emissions: An Australian Evidence Using Cointegration Test And ARDL Long-Run And Short-Run Methodology”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(5): 441-449.
Kraft, J. and Kraft A. (1978) “On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP”, Journal Energy Development, 401-403.
Lee, C.C. and Chang, C.P. (2007) “Energy Consumption And GDP Revisited: A Panel Analysis Of Developed And Developing Countries”, Energy Econ., 29: 1206–1223.
Lee, C.C. and Chang, C.P. (2008) “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Asian Economies A more Comprehensive Analysis Using Panel Data”, Resource and Energy Economics, (30):50-65.
Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988) “On The Mechanics Of Economic Development. Journal Of Monetary Economics”, 22(1): 3-42.
Manga, M., Bal, H., Algan, N., and Kandır, E. D. (2015) “Beşerî Sermaye, Fiziksel Sermaye Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: BRICS Ülkeleri Ve Türkiye Örneği”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24(1): 45-60.
Marques, L.M, Fuinhas J.A. and Marques, A.C. (2016) “On the Global Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus: a Long Time Span Analysis”, International Energy Journal, 16: 143-150.
Mucuk, M., & Uysal, D. (2009) “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Maliye Dergisi, 157(1): 105-115.
Mudakkar, S. R., Zaman, K., Shakir, H., Arif, M., Naseem, I., & Naz, L. (2013) “Determinants Of Energy Consumption Function In SAARC Countries: Balancing The Odds”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28: 566-574.
Ozturk, I., Aslan, A., Kalyoncu, H. (2010) “Energy Consumption And Economic Growth Relationship: Evidence From Panel Data For Low and Middle İncome Countries”, Energy Policy, 38(8): 4422-4428.
Payne, J. E., Loomis, D., and Wilson, R. (2011) “Residential Natural Gas Demand İn Illinois: Evidence From The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”, Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy, 41(2): 138-147.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin Y. and Smith R. J. (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3): 289-326.
Romer, P. M. (1986) “Increasing returns and long-run growth”, Journal of political economy, 94(5): 1002-1037. Samuel, Y. A., Manu, O., and Wereko, T. B. (2013) “Determinants Of Energy Consumption: A Review”, International Journal of Management Sciences, 1(12): 482-487.
Sarkodie, S. A., and Adom, P. K. (2018) “Determinants Of Energy Consumption İn Kenya: a NIPALS approach”, Energy, 159, 696-705.
Solow, R. M. (1957) “Technical change and the aggregate production function”, The review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3): 312-320.
Soytas, U., and Sari, R. (2006) “Energy Consumption And İncome İn G-7 Countries”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(7): 739-750.
Squalli, J. and Wilson, K. (2006) “A Bounds Analysis of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the GCC”, Working Paper -06-09, EPRU Zayed University, Abu Dhabi.
Stern, D. (1993) “Energy and Economic Growth in the USA: A Multivariate Approach”, Energy Economics, 15(2):137-150.
Şeker, F., Ertuğrul, H. M., and Çetin, M. (2015) “The İmpact Of Foreign Direct İnvestment On Environmental Quality: A Bounds Testing And Causality Analysis For Turkey”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52: 347-356.
Şengül, S. ve Tuncer, İ. (2006) “Türkiye’de enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme: 1960-2000”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 21(242): 69-80.
Tang, C. F., Tan, B. W. and Ozturk, I. (2016) “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Vietnam”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54: 1506-1514.
Wietze, L., Kees and Van M. (2005) “Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is there a Co-integration Relationship?”, Energy Economics, 27(6): 849-856.
Yıldırım, D. Ç., Yıldırım, S., and Demirtas, I. (2019) “Investigating Energy Consumption And Economic Growth For BRICS-T Countries”, World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, 16(4): 184-195.
Yu, E. S., and Choi, J. Y. (1985) “The Causal Relationship Between Energy And GNP: An İnternational Comparison”, The Journal of Energy and Development, 249-272.
Zhang, Y. J., Liu, Z., Zhang, H., and Tan, T. D. (2014), “The İmpact Of Economic Growth, İndustrial Structure And Urbanization On Carbon Emission İntensity İn China”, Natural Hazards, 73: 579-595.