HİZMET TİCARETİNİN MAKRO VE MIKRO BELİRLEYENLERİ: İNGİLİZ FİRMALARI ÜZERİNE BİR CALIŞMA

Bu çalışma İngiltere'nin hizmet ticaretinin makro ve mikro belirleyenleri analiz etmektedir. Ticareti belirleyen etmenlerin önemi, uzun zamandır çekim modeli çerçevesinde incelenmektedir. Ancak ticaret verisi doğası gereği En Küçük Kareler (EKK) tahmin yönteminden başka tahmin yöntemlerini gerektirmektedir. Bu çalışmada, İngiltere'nin firma düzeyinde hizmet ticaretinin belirleyenlerini tahmin etmek için EKK'nin yanında PPML ve Tobit yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, kullanılan üç tahmin yöntemi içinde en iyi performansı PPML yönteminin gösterdiğini saptamıştır. Bu yöntem, verideki sıfırları ve değişen varyans problemini dikkate almaktadır. Firma verileri dikkate alınarak yapılan analizler, her bir ticaret belirleyeninin katsayısının, ülke düzeyinde yapılan analizlerden farklılık gösterdiğini saptamıştır. Bu da ülke düzeyinde analizleri dikkate alarak yapılan politika önerilerinin ticaret yapan her bir firma için uygun olmayacağını göstermektedir

MACRO AND MICRO DETERMINANTS OF TRADE IN SERVICES: THE CASE OF BRITISH SERVICE TRADERS

This paper focuses on the macro and micro-level determinants of trade in services in the United Kingdom. The importance of different determinants has been investigated within the gravity framework in many studies. However, the nature of the data requires estimation approaches other than the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). To estimate the gravity equation, besides the OLS, the Poisson PseudoMaximum Likelihood (PPML) and Threshold Tobit have been used. The results confirm that, among the three different estimation approaches, the PPML is the preferred model since it is able to deal with the existence of zero trade values and heteroskedaticity problem in the data. The findings based on the disaggregated level data show that the coefficients of the trade determinants change considerably, suggesting that the policies adopted according to the results of the country-level analyses do not fit all of the trading firms

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