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BEKLENTİLER VE HANE HALKI HARCAMALARI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Hanehalklarının gelecek beklentileri onların cari dönem karar verme davranışları üzerinde önemli etkiye sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, hanehalklarının ekonomiye dair beklentileri ve hanehalkı harcamaları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik olarak test edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Analizde hanehalkı beklentileri tüketici güven endeksi ve tüketim davranışı ise dayanıklı, yarı dayanıklı, dayanıksız ve hizmet harcamalarını içeren toplam harcamalar ile temsil edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda, tüketici güven endeksi ve hanehalkı harcamaları arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen baseline model 2009Q1-2017Q2 dönemi için Vektör Otoregresif tahmin yöntemi kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Model sonucuna göre, hanehalkı tüketim harcamaları tüketici güven endeksinin Granger nedenidir. Son olarak, birçok kontrol değişkenin eklendiği model EKK tahmin yöntemi kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen önemli sonuçlar (i) dayanıklı tüketim harcamaları ve tüketici güven endeksi arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkinin olduğu, (ii) kontrol değişken olarak sadece gelir ve nominal altın getiri oranının anlamlı olduğudur

EXPECTATIONS AND HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE: CASE OF TURKEY

The expectations of households have a significant impact on their current period decisionmaking behavior. In this study, it is aimed to investigate the linkage between households' expectations and household expenditure behavior in an empirically. In the analysis, expectations of households are represented by consumer sentiment index and the sub-components of this index, and consumption behavior are represented by total expenditures, durable, semi-durable, non-durable and service expenditures. In this context, baseline model, which investigates only the linkage between consumer sentiment index and household expenditures are estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Method for the period 2009q1-2017q2. According to result, household consumption expenditure Granger causes on consumer sentiment index. Finally, incremental model with various control variables is estimated using by OLS method. The most important results obtained from the study are that (i) there is a statistically significant relationship between durable goods expenditures and the consumer centiment index (ii) only income and gold return ratio is statistically significant effect on consumption expenditure as a control variable

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