Türkiye-Afrika Ticari İlişkileri; Panel Nedensellik Analizi Bağlamında Yeni Bir Değerlendirme

Bu çalışma Türkiye-Afrika arasındaki ticari ilişkileri seçilmiş Afrika ülkeleri bağlamında incelemeyi hedeflemektedir. Geçtiğimiz dönemlerde pek çok Afrika ülkesi dışa dönük ekonomi anlayışı çerçevesinde hızlı bir büyüme sürecine girmiş ve bu süreçte Türkiye-Afrika ticari ilişkileri sürekli gelişmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin söz konusu ticaretinin seçilmiş Afrika ülkeleri bağlamında ekonomik büyüme sürecinde ne kadar etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaya çalıştık. Bu doğrultuda ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen, 20 Afrika ülkesine ait reel GSYİH (Rgdp) rakamlarını ve dış ticaret değikenini temsilen de dış ticaret hacmi (FTV) ve ödemeler dengesi (BoT) verilerini kullandık. Bu çerçevede 2006 yılında Konya tarafından geliştirilen ve SUR (Görünürde İlişkisiz Regresyon) yöntemine dayanan panel nedensellik testi, seçilmiş 20 Afrika ülkesinin 1990-2016 dönemine ait verilerine uygulanmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlara göre dış ticaret değişkenlerinden ekonomik büyüme doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uluslararası Ticaret, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Veri Modelleri

Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis

This research aims to investigate Turkey African relationship on the basis of international trade between Turkey and selected African countries. Most of African economies have experienced rapid economic growth as an outward oriented nation recently and foreign trade between Africa-Turkey has been grown continuously. In this frame we want to find out contribution of Turkish-African trade relationship on their economic growth on the basis of selected variables. For this purpose we used real gross domestic product (Rgdp) of 20 African countries as a proxy for ‘economic growth’’ and foreign trade volume (FTV) and balance of trade (BoT) with Turkey as a proxy for ‘’foreign trade’’. In this frame we employed bootstrap panel causality test developed by Kónya (2006) with countryspecific bootstrap critical values for the panel of twenty selected African countries for the period 1990–2016. Empirical results point out a unidirectional causality relationship between variables which runs from foreign trade to real GDP.

Keywords:

International Trade, Economic Growth, Panel Data,

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