Yapay Sinir Ağları ve ARIMA Modeli ile Türkiye Için Yenilenebilir Enerji Üretiminin Tahmini: 2023 Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynaklarına Göre Üretim Hedefleri

Amaç: Türkiye, enerji üretiminde fosil kaynakların neden olduğu olumsuz ekonomik, çevresel ve sosyal etkileri ortadan kaldırmak için yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları ile enerji üretimine ve tahminine çok önem vermektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları kullanılarak Türkiye’de üretecek enerji miktarını tahmin etmek için bir model önermektir.Yöntem: Bu araştırma 1965-2019 yılları arasında yenilenebilir kaynaklı enerji üretim verileri kullanılarak Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) ve Otoregresif Bütünleşik Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır.Bulgular: ANN yönteminde, 2023 yılında 127.516 TWh enerji üretileceği tahminedilirken, ARIMA (1.1.6) modeli ile bu miktarın 45.457 TeraWatt Saat (TWh) olacağı tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin modellerinin hata payını belirlemek için Ortalama Mutlak Yüzde Hatası (MAPE) hesaplanmıştır. Bu değer YSA modeli ile %13,1, ARIMA modeli ile %21,9 olarak belirlenmiştir. YSA modelinin daha doğru bir sonuç verdiğini göstermiştir.Özgünlük: Türkiye’de YEK’dan elde edilecek enerji miktarı tahmini için model önerisi yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçların enerji planlaması ve yönetiminde faydalı olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enerji, Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynakları, Yenilenebilir Enerji Üretimi Tahmini, Yapay Sinir Ağları, ARIMA Modeli, Zaman Serisi Tahmini

Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation for Turkey by Artificial Neural Networks and ARIMA Model: 2023 Generation Targets by Renewable Energy Resources

Purpose: Türkiye attaches particular importance to the energy production with renewable energy sources in order to overcome the negative economic, environmental and social effects which are caused by fossil resources in energy production. The aim of this study is to propose a model for forecasting the amount of energy to be produced for Türkiye using renewable energy resources.Methdology: In this study, a forecasting model was created by using the generatio amount of energy generation from renewable sources data between 1965 and 2019 and by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods.Findings: While it was estimated that 127.516 TWh of energy will be produced in 2023 with the ANN method, this amount was estimated as 45,457 TeraWatt Hours (TWh) with the ARIMA (1,1,6) model. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) was calculated in order to determine the margin of error of the forecasting models. These values were determined as 13.1% for the ANN model and 21.9% for the ARIMA model. These results show that the ANN model gives a more appropriate estimation result.Originality: In this research, a new model was proposed for the amount of energy to be obtained from RES in Türkiye. It is thought that the results obtained in this study will be useful in energy planning and management.

Keywords:

Renewable Energy Sources, Renewable Energy Generation Forecast, Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA Model, Time Series Forecast,

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