BALTIK KURU YÜK ENDEKSİ İLE İSTANBUL NAVLUN ENDEKSİ ARASINDAKİ ETKİLEŞİMİN İNCELENMESİ: EKONOMETRİK BİR UYGULAMA

Bu çalışmada denizyolu taşımacılık endekslerinden küresel bir ölçeğe sahip Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BDI) ve bölgesel nitelikli İstanbul Navlun Endeksi (ISTFIX) arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Mayıs 2009 ile Şubat 2019 dönemine ilişkin haftalık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri tespit etmek için Carrion-i Sylvestre (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve Enders ile Jones (2015) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier Nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi ile İstanbul Navlun Endeksinin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiği ve Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksinin İstanbul Navlun Endeksine yön verdiği tespit edilmiştir.

THE INVESTIGATION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN BALTIC DRY INDEX AND ISTANBUL FREIGHT INDEX: AN ECONOMETRIC APPLICATION

In this study, the relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) with a global scale from maritime transport indices and the regionally qualified Istanbul Freight Index (ISTFIX) has been investigated. In a study using weekly data for the period of May 2009 to February 2019, Carrion-i Sylvestre (2009) multiple structural breaks unit root test, Maki (2012) multiple structural breaks cointegration test and Fourier causality test developed by Enders and Jones (2015) was used. According to the obtained results, it was determined that the Baltic Dry Index and the Istanbul Freight Index were integrated in the long run and the Baltic Dry Index was directing the Istanbul Freight Index.

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