PARA ARZI VE REEL GELİR ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ASİMETRİK BİR ANALİZİ: MIST ÜLKELERİ İÇİN PARASALCI VE REEL İŞ DÖNGÜSÜ HİPOTEZLERİNİN TESTİ

Bu makale MIST ülkelerindeki asimetrik para-gelir ilişkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla Hatemi-J Panel Gizli Eşbütünleşme, asimetrik panel nedensellik, FMOLS ve DOLS testlerine başvurulmuştur. Asimetrik nedensellik testi sonuçları para arzı ve reel gelir arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Reel iş çevrimi hipotezi para arzındaki büyümenin reel gelirden kaynaklandığını ve bunun tersi durumun olmadığını iddia etmektedir. Asimetrik nedensellik sonucu elde edilen bulgu MIST ülkeleri için hem parasal hem de reel iş döngüsü hipotezlerini desteklemektedir. Sonuç, pozitif ve negatif kümülatif reel para arzı şoklarının ekonomide pozitif ve negatif kümülatif reel geliri etkilediğini; benzer şekilde pozitif kümülatif reel gelir şoklarının da pozitif reel geliri etkilediğini ifade etmektedirler. MIST ülkelerinde gerçekleşen ani şoklar neticesinde yaşanılan ekonomik sıkıntıların giderilebilmesi ve piyasaların istikrara kavuşabilmesi için para otoritelerinin piyasadaki pozitif ve negatif şoklardan bağımsız olarak para arzını ve reel geliri düzenlemeleri gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Para Arzı, Reel Gelir, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Panel Gizli Eşbütünleşme, FMOLS, DOLS

AN ASYMMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONEY SUPPLY AND REAL INCOME: A TEST OF MONETARY AND REAL BUSINESS CYCLE HYPOTHESES FOR MIST COUNTRIES

This article aims to examine the asymmetric money-income relationship in MIST countries. For this purpose, Hatemi-J Panel Hidden Cointegration, asymmetric panel causality, FMOLS and DOLS tests were applied. Asymmetric causality test results reveal that there is a bidirectional causality between money supply and real income. The real business cycle hypothesis claims that the growth in the money supply is due to real income and not vice versa. The finding obtained as a result of asymmetric causality supports both monetary and real business cycle hypotheses for MIST countries. The result is that positive and negative cumulative real money supply shocks affect positive and negative cumulative real income in the economy; Similarly, they state that positive cumulative real income shocks also affect positive real income. Monetary authorities should regulate the money supply and real income independently of the positive and negative shocks in the market in order to eliminate the economic problems experienced as a result of sudden shocks in MIST countries and to stabilize the markets.

Keywords:

Money Supply, Real Income, Asymmetric Causality, Panel Hidden Cointegration, FMOLS, DOLS,

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