YENİLİK ODAKLI EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİ: BİR NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Teorik olarak yenilik odaklı büyüme hipotezi, yenilik ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişkinin olduğunu kabul eder. AR-GE yeniliklerde, verimlilik ve ekonomik büyümenin artırılmasında temel bir rol oynar. Çalışmada bu hipotez ampirik olarak test edilmektedir. Bu makale, AR-GE harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini inceler. Metodoloji, standart Granger ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testlerine dayanır ve 1981-2009 periyoduna yönelik dokuz AB ükesini içerir. Standart Granger nedensellik testleri dikkate alındığında, ampirik bulgular Finlandiya, Fransa ve İspanya örneğinde AR-GE harcamalarının GSYİH’ya neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Danimarka ekonomisinde GSYİH AR-GE harcamalarına neden olurken, diğer ülkelerde nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusu değildir. Diğer taraftan Toda-Yamamoto test sonuçları ise Hollanda, İrlanda ve İtalya’da AR-GE harcamaları ile GSYİH arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte Finlandiya ve Fransa’da çift yönlü nedenselliğe rastlanmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar Avusturya için AR-GE harcamalarından GSYİH’ya doğru, Danimarka, İspanya ve Portekiz için GSYİH’dan AR-GE harcamalarına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuç olarak bu çalışma, bazı AB ülkeleri için hipotezi destekleyici kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yenilik, AR-GE harcamaları, Ekonomik büyüme, Nedensellik

THE HYPOTHESIS OF INNOVATION-BASED ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP

Theoretically, the innovation-based growth hypothesis suggests that there is a positive linkage between innovation and economic growth. R&D plays a major role in innovation, raising productivity and increasing economic growth. In this study, this hypothesis is tested empiricially. The paper examines the causal relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth. We apply our methodology, based on the standart Granger and Toda-Yamamoto tests for causality, to time-series data covering the period 1981-2008 for nine European countries. In consideration of standart Granger causality test, our empirical findings clearly exhibit that R&D expenditures cause GDP in the cases of Finland, France and Spain. The results also indicate that GDP causes R&D expenditures in Denmark and there is no causality between variables in other countries. On the other hand, the results of Toda-Yamamoto test imply that there is no causality between R&D expenditures and GDP in Holland, Ireland and Italy. However, there is bidirectional causality in Finland and France. Empirical results also indicate that there is a causal relationship between variables running from R&D expenditures to GDP for Austria, while the direction of causality is from GDP to R&D expenditures for Denmark, Spain and Portugal. Consequently, this study provides further evidence supporting the hypothesis for some European countries

Keywords:

Innovation, R&D expenditures, Economic growth, Causality,

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