POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: MENA ÜLKELERİ İÇİN PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Ekonomi ile politika arasında kuvvetli ve karşılıklı bir ilişki mevcuttur. Dolayısıyla, ekonomik performans araştırılırken genellikle politik değişkenler de analize dâhil edilmektedir. En önemli politik değişkenlerden biri ise politik istikrarsızlıktır. Politik istikrarsızlıklar açısından bir değerlendirme yapılırsa, dünyadaki en istikrarsız bölgelerden birinin MENA bölgesi olduğu görülmektedir. Sahip olduğu petrol rezerv hacmi ve üretim miktarı dikkate alındığında, söz konusu bölgedeki politik istikrarsızlıkların dünya ekonomisi açısından da önemi büyüktür. Bu çalışmanın amacı, politik istikrarsızlık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini, MENA ülkeleri açısından araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla, seçilmiş 14 MENA ülkesi için 1991-2016 dönemini kapsayan bir araştırma yürütülmüştür. Politik istikrarsızlık göstergesi olarak ICRG tarafından yayımlanan iç ve dış karışıklık endekslerinin tercih edildiği araştırmada, Kónya (2006) tarafından geliştirilen bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, İran ve İsrail hariç, diğer ülkelerde söz konusu değişkenler arasında tek ve çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri mevcuttur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Nedensellik, MENA

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR MENA COUNTRIES

There is a strong and bilateral relationship between the economy and politics. Therefore, political variables are often included when analyzing economic performance. One of the most important political variables is political instability. If an assessment is made in terms of political instability, it is seen that one of the most unstable region in the world is the MENA region. When considering the volume of oil reserves and the amount of production that they have, the political instability in the region is also a big issue for the world economy. The aim of this study is to investigate the causality relationship between political instability and economic growth in MENA countries. For this purpose, a survey covering the 1991-2016 periods was conducted for 14 selected MENA countries. In the study, Internal and external conflict indices published by the ICRG.as a political instability indicator were preferred and bootstrapped panel Granger causality test developed by Kónya (2006) was used. According to the findings, except for Iran and Israel, there are single and twofold causal relationships among the variables.

Keywords:

Political Instability, Economic Growth, Panel Causality, MENA,

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