Oğuz TÜMTÜRK

5211

DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞININ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKE İHRACAT AKIMLARINA ETKİSİ

Bu çalışma döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat akımları üzerindeki uzun dönem etkisini Türkiye, Endonezya, Brezilya, Meksika, Polonya ve Şili gelişmekte olan ülkeleri özelinde incelemektedir. Döviz kuru oynaklığı, hem ARCH/GARCH modeli hem de hareketli standart sapmalar bazlı ölçümlerle elde edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeli sonuçları Brezilya, Endonezya ve Şili özelinde bir eşbütünleşme ilşkisinin varlığını tespit edemezken diğer ülkelerde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. İkinci olarak, dış dünya gelir düzeyi Türkiye, Meksika ve Polonya’da ihracat akımlarını etkileyen en etkili değişkendir. Üçüncü olarak, Türkiye ve Meksika’da teorik beklentilere uygun şekilde reel döviz kuru düzeyi ile ihracat akımları arasında anlamlı negatif ilişkiler bulunmuştur. Son olarak ise, döviz kuru oynaklığı Polonya’da ihracat akımlarını olumsuz etkilerken, Türkiye’de ihracat üzerinde anlamlı pozitif ilişkiler üretmektedir.

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This article investigates the long run impacts of exchange rate volatilities on export volumes in six developingcountries, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Poland, and Chile. The exchange rate volatility is estimated by bothARCH/GARCH and moving sample standard deviation-based volatility proxies. Error correction representation ofthe long run export model reveals that there is not cointegration relationship for Brazil, Indonesia, and Chile whilethe results support the cointegration relationship for Turkey, Mexico, and Poland. Second, world income is majordeterminant driving export volumes in Turkey, Mexico, and Poland. Third, there is a significant negativerelationship between exchange rate level and export volumes in Turkey and Mexico in line with theory. Finally,the measure of exchange rate volatility carries a significant negative coefficient in the case of Poland but asignificant positive coefficient in the case of Turkey.
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Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1307-9832
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2008
  • Yayıncı: Kenan ÇELİK
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