ÇEVRESEL KUZNETS EĞRİSİ VE DIŞA AÇIKLIK: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Günümüz dünyasında küresel ısınmadan kaynaklı iklim değişikliği olgusu en büyük endişelerden bir tanesidir. İklim değişikliği özellikle, insan aktivitelerinden ve doğal felaketlerden etkilenmektedir. İnsan faaliyetleri sonucunda ise fosil yakıt tüketiminde artış gerçekleşmektedir. Çevre bilim uzmanları fosil yakıt kullanımının CO2 salımının artışına sebep olduğunu iddia etmektedirler. CO2 gazı sera gazları içerisinde en büyük paya sahiptir ve bu gazda meydana gelen artış, iklim değişikliğini ve küresel ısınmayı hızlandırmaktadır. Bu yüzden, ülkeler için bu gaz salımını azaltmak ve sürdürülebilir ekonomi faaliyetlerinde başarılı olmak, büyük önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışma 1975-2014 döneminde Türkiye’de çevresel Kuznets eğrisi hipotezi çerçevesinde GSYİH, enerji tüketimi (birincil enerji, petrol, elektrik, hidroelektrik ve alternatif enerji) ve dışa açıklık değişkenlerinin CO2 salımı üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. ADF ve PP birim kök test sonuçları, analiz edilen değişkenlerin birinci farklarında durağan olduklarını göstermektedir. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tespiti için kullanılan sınır testi sonucuna göre de seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Uzun dönemde ARDL modelinden elde edilen katsayılara göre GSYİH, birincil enerji tüketimi ve dışa açıklık CO2 salımına sebebiyet verirken, alternatif enerji tüketimiyle hidroelektrik tüketiminin çevresel bozulmayı engellediği görülmektedir. Kömür, petrol ve elektrik tüketiminin ise CO2 salımı üzerinde etkisi bulunmamaktadır. ARDL, FMOLS ve CCR tahmincilerinden elde edilen sonuçlar, çevresel Kuznets eğrisi hipotezini desteklemektedir. GSYİH ile CO2 salımı arasında ters- U şeklinde bir ilişki mevcuttur. Fakat, dönüm noktası değerleri analiz dönemindeki en yüksek GSYİH düzeyinin üzerinde yer almaktadır. Son olarak, bu önemli bulgular, alternatif enerji tüketimi ve hidroelektrik tüketiminin, çevre kirliliğini azaltmaya yönelik bir çözüm olabileceğini ve gelecekte Türkiye’nin CO2 salımının, GSYİH’nın dönüm noktasına ulaşması halinde azalmaya başlayacağını göstermektedir. Bu yüzden ülkenin alternatif ve hidroelektrik enerji kaynaklarına mutlaka yönelmesi gerekmektedir ve Türk yetkilileri, sürdürülebilir ve çevreci bir gelişim için alternatif enerji ve hidroelektrik kullanımını değerlendirmelidir.

In today’s world, Climate change due to hazard of global warming is one of the biggest issues. In addition, Climate change is affected by human activities and natural disasters. Fossil fuel consumption increase as a result of human activities. Environmental scientists claim that fossil fuel energy consumption is responsible for CO2 emission, which is one of the major causes of creating greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere and resulting global warming and climate change. Therefore, it is important to reduce these emissions and achieve sustainable development for countries. The aim of this study is to explore the influence of the GDP, energy consumption (primary energy, coal, petroleum, electricity, hydropower and alternative energy) and trade openness on CO2 emissions for Turkey within the framework of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis covering the period from 1975 to 2014. ADF and PP unit root tests show that the analyzed variables become stationary at first-differences. The result of bounds testing for cointegration indicates that there is a long-run relationship between these variables. In the long-run the coefficients obtained from the ARDL, demonstrate that GDP, primary energy consumption and trade openness contribute CO2 emissions, while alternative energy consumption and hydropower consumption mitigate environmental degradation. Coal consumption, petroleum consumption and electricity consumption have no effect on CO2 emissions. Moreover, the ARDL, FMOLS and CCR results support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, which suggests an inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions. However, the turning points are above the highest GDP level in the analysis period. Finally, these important findings show that alternative energy consumption and hydropower consumption can be a solution to reduce environmental pollution, and Turkey’s CO2 emissions will begin to decline when the country reaches the per capita income level at the turning point in the future. Thus, adapting of alternative and hydropower energy systems is necessary and unavoidable for Turkey, and Turkish authorities should consider alternative and hydropower energy uses to achieve a sustainable and green development.

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