BENZİN FİYATI, REEL DÖVİZ KURU VE GIDA FİYATININ SEBZE VE MEYVE İHRACATI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Bu araştırma, benzin fiyatları, döviz kurundaki güncel dalgalanmalar ve gıda fiyatlarının Türkiye'den sebze ve meyve ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL (NARDL) yaklaşımı uygulanarak, benzin, reel döviz kuru ve gıda fiyatlarındaki hareketlerin doğrusal olmadığı varsayımı altında, 2003:1'den 2019:12'ye kadar olan dönemde sebze ve meyve ihracatının belirleyicileri bulunmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışma, benzin, reel döviz kuru ve gıda fiyatlarının sebze ve meyve ihracatı üzerindeki asimetrik etkilerini belirlemeyi amaçlamıştır. NARDL modelinin sonuçları, benzin fiyatlarındaki uzun vadeli dalgalanmaların farklı büyüklükteki meyve ve sebzelerin ihracatını etkilediğini göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, sebze ihracatının reel döviz kuru açısından uzun vadede doğrusal etkilere maruz kaldığı kaydedilmiştir. Buna karşın, meyve ihracatının asimetrik etkilere maruz kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Mevcut yayın, gıda fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların sebze ihracatı üzerinde farklı etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Reel Döviz Kuru, Gıda Fiyatı, Tarımsal İhracat, Petrol Fiyatı

THE EFFECTS OF GASOLINE PRICE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND FOOD PRICE ON VEGETABLE AND FRUIT EXPORT

This study examines the effects of gasoline prices, fluctuations in the actual exchange rate, and food prices on the export of vegetables and fruits from Turkey. In this study, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was utilized to examine the factors influencing the exports of vegetables and fruits from 2003:1 to 2019:12. The analysis was conducted with the assumption that the relationships between gasoline, actual exchange rates, and food prices are nonlinear. The objective of the study was to ascertain the asymmetric effects of gasoline, real exchange rate, and food prices on the exportation of vegetables and fruits. The findings of the NARDL model suggest that there is a significant relationship between long-term fluctuations in gasoline prices and the export of fruits and vegetables of different magnitudes. On the other hand, it has been observed that vegetable exports experience linear effects over an extended period in relation to the real exchange rate. On the other hand, it has been observed that fruit exports are susceptible to asymmetric effects. The present study suggests that fluctuations in food prices have diverse effects on vegetable exports.

Keywords:

Gasoline Price, Real Exchange Rate, Food Price, Agricultural Export,

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