Arzdar KİRACI, Semih Serkant AKTUĞ, Farhang abdulkareem AQRAW, Mehmet DAĞ

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ

Bu çalışmanın amacı; enflasyon, Irak'ın kuzey bölgesinde (IKB) kullanılan ana para birimlerinin döviz kurları, para arzı ve gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkiyi 2008-2016 dönemi için incelemektir. Bölgenin yüksek enflasyon oranından muzdarip olması ve 2003 yılında eski Irak rejiminin düşmesinden sonra döviz kurlarında dalgalanmalar olması dikkat çekicidir. Bu çalışma, IKB için bir hata düzeltme modeli kullanan konudaki ilk makaledir. Sonuçlar değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. ABD Doları ile bölgedeki enflasyon arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişki pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Euro ile enflasyon arasında negatif bir ilişki vardır ve bu istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. IKB Türkiye'den birçok mal ve hizmet ithal ediyor olmasına rağmen şaşırtıcı bir sonuç, Türk lirası değişkeninin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmaması. Bunun sebebi, ithalat ödemelerinin Türk Lirası ile değil Dolar ile yapılması nedeniyle olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Inflation Rate, Foreign Exchange Rate, Money Supply, GDP, Error Correction Model

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ

The purpose of this study is to examine the relation between the inflation rate, foreign exchange rates of the major currencies used in the northern region of Iraq (NRI), money supply and gross domestic product (GDP) for the period 2008-2016. It is notable that the region suffers from high inflation rates and there were fluctuations in foreign exchange rates after the fall of the former Iraqi regime in 2003. This is the first article about this subject for NRI using an error correction model and the results indicate that there is a long-run relation between variables. The relation between US Dollar and inflation in the region is positive and statistically significant. There is a negative relation between Euro and inflation, which is also statistically significant. NRI imports many goods and services from Turkey, but a surprising result is that the Turkish Lira variable is not statistically significant. This may be due to the fact that import payments are done with Dollars and not Turkish Liras. There is also a negative long-run relation for the variables GDP and money supply, which are not statistically significant. In the analysis, money supply by the Iraqi Central Bank was used as the money supply variable, but the amount of money supply in the NRI is not proportional to the amount offered by the Central Bank, there is no advanced banking system in the region. The amount of Dinar coming into the region consists of converting the oil export revenues into Iraqi dinar and supplying these Dinars as payments to the market. Therefore, the NRI money supply will depend on the oil revenues and the Dollar, which makes money supply variable statistically insignificant.

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