HAREKETLİ NESNELERİN UYARLANABİLİR BULANIK ZAMAN SERİLERİ VE ÜSSEL DÜZELTME TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİNİ KULLANARAK GERÇEK ZAMANLI YÖRÜNGELERİNİN İZLENMESİ

Bu çalışmada; gerçek zamanda kamera görüntüsünden alınan hedef cismin; dairesel, eğik atışa benzer ve manevralı dinamik hareket yapması durumunda, bir sonraki konumu veya nerede olacağı Adaptive Fuzzy Time Series (AFTS) ve Exponential Smoothing (ES) tahmin yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Bu hareketlerin hata değerlendirmesi, ortalama mutlak yüzde hata (MAPE) yöntemine göre yapılmıştır. Yapılan değerlendirmede, AFTS ile dairesel harekette %3.65, eğik atışa benzer harekette %9.12, manevralı dinamik harekette %19.23, ES ile dairesel harekette %4.48, eğik atışa benzer harekette %1.13 ve manevralı dinamik harekette ise %0.61 elde edilmiştir. Dairesel harekette AFTS ES’den, eğik atışa benzer ve manevralı dinamik harekette ise ES AFTS’den daha iyi sonuç vermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Hedef takibi, tahmin algoritmaları, uyarlanabilir bulanık zaman serileri, üssel düzeltme

Real Time Trajectory Tracking of Moving Objects Using Adaptive Fuzzy Time Series and Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Techniques

In his study; in cases where the targeted object which is taken from a real time camera shot is in a circular motion, quasi projectile motion and maneuvering dynamic motion, its later location where it will be is examined using the Adaptive Fuzzy Time Series (AFTS) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) estimation methods. Error evaluation of these motions was performed according to the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. In the conducted evaluation, with AFTS, the circular motion was found to be 3.65%, quasi projectile motion 9.12%, and maneuvering dynamic motion 19.23%, and with ES, circular motion 4.48%, quasi projectile motion 1.13% and maneuvering dynamic motion was found to be 0.61%. AFTS gives better results than ES for the circular motion but ES gives better results than AFTS for quasi projectile and maneuvering dynamic motions.

Keywords:

Target tracking, Estimation algorithms, Adaptive fuzzy time series, Exponential smoothing,

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