Determination of the causal relationship between beef prices and the consumer price index in Turkey
Determination of the causal relationship between beef prices and the consumer price index in Turkey
The rising prices of beef meat have recently restricted its accessibility for consumers who need to consume it for a balancedand healthy diet. Speculations have been made about the increase in beef meat prices being one of the major factors underlying theincrease in the consumer price index (CPI). In this scope, the causal relationship between the monthly average prices of beef and therate of year-on-year change in the CPI for the period between January 2005 and February 2018 was analyzed in the study. Since timeseries data were used, the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were conducted to find out whether the series werestationary. Nonstationary series were made stationary by taking their difference. After conducting unit root test on the series, a vectorauto regression model was developed, and the causality between the variables was tested by the Granger Causality Analysis. The resultsof the Granger Causality Analysis indicate that the monthly average price of beef and the rate of year-on-year change in the CPI arecausally related at a level of 5% and 10%. In conclusion, the monthly data of the CPI and the beef prices between January 2005 andFebruary 2018 are causally related at a significance level of 1%.
___
- 1. Hernandez MA, Ibarra R, Trupkin DR. How far do shocks
move across borders? Examining volatility transmission
in major agricultural futures markets. European Review of
Agricultural Economics 2013; 41 (2): 301-325. doi: 10.1093/
erae/jbt020
- 2. Eştürk Ö, Albayrak N. Investigation of the relationship
between agricultural products-food price increases and
inflation. ÜİİİD-IJEAS 2018; (18. EYİ Özel Sayı): 147-158
(article in Turkish with an English abstract). doi: 10.18092/
ulikidince.353991
- 3. Sarris A. Food commodity price volatility and food insecurity.
Bio-based and Applied Economics 2013; 2 (3): 213-236.
- 4. Bazga B, Ipate I, Ipate N. Price volatility in context of food
security for sustainable development. Competitiveness of
Agro-Food and Environmental Economy 2014; 198-204.
- 5. Mohanty MS, Klau M. What determines inflation in emerging
market countries? BIS Papers No 8, Modellin Aspects of
Inflation Orocess and Monetary Transmission Mechanism in
Emerging Market Countries 2001; 1-38.
- 6. Erdal G, Esengün K, Erdal H. Türkiye’de tarım ve gıda ürünleri
fiyatlarındaki belirsizliğin enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri. KMU
İİBF Dergisi 2008; 10 (15): 65-79 (in Turkish with an English
abstract).
- 7. Bayramoğlu AT, Yurtkur AK. International factors on food
and agricultural price determinations in turkey. Anadolu
Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 2015; 15 (2): 63-74 (in
Turkish with an English abstract). doi: 10.18037/ausbd.84248
- 8. Akın AC, Arıkan MS, Çevrimli MB. Effect of import decisions
in Turkey between 2010-2017 on the red meat sector. 1st
International Health Science and Life Congress; Burdur,
Turkey; 2018. pp 109-119 (in Turkish with an English abstract).
- 9. Revell BJ. One man’s meat… 2050? ruminations on future
meat demand in the context of global warming. Journal
of Agricultural Economics 2015; 66 (3): 573-614. doi:
10.1111/1477-9552.12121
- 10. Sarıözkan S. Livestock product prices and input costs in Turkey
(1995-2004). Erciyes Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi
2006; 3 (2): 105-110 (in Turkish with an English abstract).
- 11. Cevger Y, Sakarya E. Meat prices and factors affecting them
in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Veterinary and Animal Sciences
2006; 30 (1): 1-6.
- 12. Aydın E, Aral Y, Can MF, Cevger Y, Sakarya E et al. Analysis of
the red meat price changes over the last 25 years and effects of
import decisions in Turkey. Vet Hekim Der Derg 2011; 82 (1):
3-13 (in Turkish with an English abstract).
- 13. Özertan G, Saghaian SH, Tekgüç H. Dynamics of price
transmission and market power in the Turkish beef sector.
İktisat İşletme ve Finans 2015; 30 (349): 53-76.
- 14. Yamak N, Kolcu F. Inflation-relative price variability
relationship: the case of Turkey. International Journal of
Sciences and Education Research 2015; 1 (3): 740-757 (in
Turkish with an English abstract). doi: 10.24289/ijsser.279153
- 15. Engeloğlu Ö, Meral İG, Genç K. A literature review on the
causality test applications about Turkey. Social Sciences
Research Journal 2015; 4 (2): 142-154 (in Turkish with an
English abstract) .
- 16. Arslan S. The impacts of fuel prices on ovine and cattle prices.
Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi (ICMEB17)
Özel Sayı 2017; 284-291 (in Turkish with an English abstract).
doi: 10.17130/ijmeb.2017ICMEB1735452
- 17. Yalçınkaya HS. Research of suitability of the Ankara meat
exchange with the efficient market hypothesis. Journal of
Business Research-Türk 2017; 9 (4): 495-509 (in Turkish with
an English abstract). doi: 10.20491/isarder.2017.343
- 18. TURKSTAT. Tüketici fiyat endeksi, Türkiye İstatistik
Kurumu [online]. Website https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/
medas/?kn=84&locale=tr [accessed 09 March 2019].
- 19. MMB. Bulletin of weekly price. Meat and Milk Board [online].
Website https://www.esk.gov.tr/ [accessed 09 March 2019].
20. EViews 6. EViews 6 user’s guide. Quantitative Micro Software,
CA, 2007.
- 21. Yılmazer M. Relationship with foreign direct investment,
foreign trade and economic growth: a case study on turkey.
Celal Bayar Üniversitesi SBE, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 2010; 8
(1): 241-260 (in Turkish with an English abstract).
- 22. Doğan B, Eroğlu Ö, Değer O. The causal relationship between
inflation and interest rates: the case of Turkey. Çankırı
Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi 2016; 6 (1): 405-425 (in
Turkish with an English abstract). doi: 10.18074/cnuiibf.258
- 23. Abdullah M, Kalim R. Empirical analysis food price inflation
in Pakistan. World Applied Sciences Journal 2012; 16 (7): 933-
939.
- 24. Çıplak U, Yücel ME. İthalatta koruma önlemleri ile tarım ve
gıda fiyatları. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, Araştırma
Genel Müdürlüğü Çalışma Tebliği 2004; No:04/01, Ankara, (in
Turkish).
- 25. Güloğlu B, Nazlıoğlu Ş. Impacts of inflation on agricultural
prices: panel smooth transition regression analysis. Siyaset,
Ekonomi ve Yönetim
Dergisi 2013; 1 (1): 1-22 (in Turkish with
an English abstract).
- 26. Erol E. The determinants of food inflation in Turkey. PhD,
Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 2017.
- 27. Çiçek H, Doğan İ. Developments in live cattle and beef import
and the analysis of producer prices with trend models in
Turkey. Kocatepe Vet J 2018; 11 (1): 1-10 (in Turkish with an
English abstract). doi: 10.5578/kvj.66117
- 28. Başkaya YS, Gürgür T, Ögünç F. Global warming, globalization
and food crisis – an empirical study on processed food prices
in Turkey. Central Bank Review 2008; 8 (2): 1 (in Turkish with
an English abstract).
- 29. Utkulu U, Ekinci R. Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through
of international oil and food prices to domestic prices: NARDL
model evidence for Turkey. Finans Politik & Ekonomik
Yorumlar 2016; 53 (617): 9 (in Turkish with an English
abstract).