Vladimir KENDROVSKI, Snezana MILKOVSKA, Jovanka K BISLIMOVSKA, Jordan MINOV, Margarita SPASENOVSKA, Maria Kisman HRISTOVSKA

Maksimum sıcaklık ve iklim değişikliğinin Üsküp, Makedonya Cumhuriyeti'nde mevcut ve gelecekteki polen dağılımına etkileri

AMAÇ: Sunulan çalışmanın amacı ortam ısısının Üsküpte polen dağılımı üzerine şu anki ve gelecekteki yükünü değerlendirmektir. YÖNTEM: Bu çalışmada Üsküpre atmosferdeki polen parçacıkları ve en yüksek sıcaklık arasındaki korelasyon, iklim değişikliği yükünün bir göstergesi olarak 1996, 2003, 2007 ve 2009 yılları, tozlanma dönemlerinde değerlendirildi. Analizlerimiz için 9 fitoallerjen grubu (ağaçlar, çimler, otlar) gösterge olarak seçildi. Polen parçacık yoğunluğu Lanzoni hacimsel polen toplayıcısı ile değerlendirildi. Atmosferdeki polen parçacık yoğunluğu ve seçilmiş meteorolojik değişkenlerin haftalık değerlendirmeleri arasındaki ilişki lineer regresyon ve korelasyon katsayıları ile değerlendirildi. SONUÇLAR: Üsküpte bazı dönemlerdeki polen alerjenleri duyarlılığı 1996 da 16,9 iken 2009da 19.8e yükselmiştir. Çiçek açma zamanı, en yüksek sıcaklık ve polen mevsimi uzunluğunda farklılık saptadık. Polen dağılımı ve riski üç ana dönemde artma gösterdi, erken ilkbahar, ilkbahar ve yaz. Üsküpte, iklim değişikliğine bağlı en büyük hava sıcaklığı değişimi yaz mevsiminde saptandı. TARTIŞMA: İklim değişikliğinin sıcaklıkları artırıcı etkisinin önümüzdeki on yıllarda polen üretimi ve mevcut polen dönemlerinde artış yapacağı görülmektedir.

Tthe ımpacts of maximum temperature and climate change to current and future pollen distribution in skopje, Republic of Macedonia

AIM: The goal of the present paper was to assess the impact of current and future burden of the ambient temperature to pollen distributions in Skopje. METHODS: In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Skopje and maximum temperature, during the vegetation period of 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as a current burden in context of climate change. For our analysis we have selected 9 representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds). The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variable from weekly monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. RESULTS: The prevalence of the sensibilization of standard pollen allergens in Skopje during the some period shows increasing from 16,9% in 1996 to 19,8% in 2009. We detect differences in onset of flowering, maximum and end of the length of seasons for pollen. The pollen distributions and risk increases in 3 main periods: early spring, spring and summer which are the main cause of allergies during these seasons. The largest increase of air temperature due to climate change in Skopje is expected in the summer season. CONCLUSION: The impacts of climate change by increasing of the temperature in the next decades very likely will include impacts on pollen production and differences in current pollen season.

PDF

___

1. IPCC. Summary for policymakers. Eds.: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor MMB, Miller HL Jr. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge. Cambridge University Pres, 2007, p. 1-18.
2. Tans P. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Globally Averaged Marine Surface Annual Mean Data. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ ccgg/. [Accessed Date: 12.01.2011].
3. Ministry of Environmental and Physical Planning. Second National communication on climate change under the United Nation Climate Change Convention. Skopje: 2008
4. Beggs PJ. Impacts of climate change on aeroallergens: past and future. Clin. Exp. Allergy. 2004; 34: 1507-1513.
5. Shea KM, Truckner RT, Weber RW, Peden DB. Climate change and allergic disease. J. Allergy Clin. Immunol. 2008; 122: 443-453.
6. Taylor PE, Jacobson KW, House JM, Glovsky MM. Links between pollen, atopy and the asthma epidemic. Int. Arch. Allergy Immunol. 2007; 144: 162-170.
7. Dahl A, Strandhede SO. Predicting the intensity of the birch pollen season, Aerobiologia. 1996; 12(1): 97-106.
8. Sparks T, Jeffree EP, Jeffree CE. An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phonological records from the UK. Int. J. Biometeorol. 2000; 44: 82-87.
9. Cvetanov V, Karadzinska Bislimovska J, Stikova E, et al. Alergic diseases in R.Macedonia. Institute of Occupational Health, WHO Coolaboarative Center, Skopje. 2006.
10. Milkovska S, Jankova R. Komparativni rezultati na polenskata mikroflora vo Skopje i Sofija. II Kongres na makedonsko respiratorno zdruzenie. Ohrid. Mak. Med. Pregled. 1997; 50: 139.
11. Frei T, Gassner E. Climate change and its impact on birch pollen quantities and the start of the pollen season an example from Switzerland for the period 1969-2006. Int J Biometeorol. 2008; 52(7): 667-674.
12. Yli-Panula E, Fekedulegn DB, Green BJ, Ranta H. Analysis of airborne Betula pollen in Finland; a 31-year perspective. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. 2009; 6: 1706-1723.
13. Bortenschlager S, Bortenschlager I. Altering airborne pollen concentrations due to the Global Warming. A comparative analysis of airborne pollen records from Innsbruck and Obergurgl (Austria) for the period 19802001. Grana. 2005; 44: 172-180.
14. Teranishi H, Kenda Y, Katoh T, Kasuya M, Oura E, Taira H. Possible role of climate change in the pollen scatter of Japanese cedar Cryptomeria japonica in Japan. Climate Research. 2000; 14: 65-70
15. Kasprzyk I, Walanus A. Description of the main Poaceae pollen season using bi-Gaussian curves, and forecasting methods for the start and peak dates for this type of season in Rzeszów and Ostrowiec Sw. (SE Poland). J Environ Monit. 2010; 12(4): 906-916.
16. Diaz de la Guardia C, Alba F, de Linares C, Nieto-Lugilde D, López Caballero J. Aerobiological and allergenic analysis of cupressaceae pollen in Granada (Southern Spain). J Investig Allergol Clin Immunol. 2006; 16(1): 24-33.
17. Rodríguez-de la Cruz D, Sánchez-Reyes E, Dávila-González I, Lorente-Toledano F, Sánchez-Sánchez J. Airborne pollen calendar of Salamanca, Spain, 2000-2007. Allergol Immunopathol (Madr). 2010; 38(6): 307-312.