Reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkilerinin analizi

Bu çalışmada reel döviz kuruyla dış ticaret arasındaki ilişkiler 1992:1 – 2009:1 dönemi ele alınarak aylık veriler kullanmak suretiyle Sınır Testi modeli yardımıyla sınanmıştır. Ampirik bulgular; Sınır Testi, ARDL ve Yapısal Granger Nedensellik testi yardımıyla uzun dönem açısından elde edilmiştir. Araştırma bulguları reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesini sağlama anlamında etkin bir fonksiyonunun olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Analysis of long – term effects of foreign trade on the real exchange rate

In this study the relationship between real Exchange rate and foreign trade has been tested by using 1992:1 – 2009:1 monthly data via Bounds Test. Empiricial findings has been achieved by Bounds Test, ARDL and Structural Granger Causality Test in terms of long run period. Empirical findings points out that real Exchange rate has an efficient function on stabilizing the balance of foreign trade.

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