Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi

Bu çalışmada, Şen (2012) ve Şen (2015) tarafından önerilen oldukça yeni bir trend metodu, Kızılırmak havzasından seçilen Şefaatli, Kuyluş, Salur Köprüsü ve Bulakbaşı akım gözlem istasyonlarında aylık olarak ölçülen akım verilerine uygulanmıştır. Aynı verilere Mann-Kendall trend testi de uygulanarak sonuçlar tartışılmıştır. Mann-Kendall testine göre %95 güven aralığında Kuylus ve Bulakbaşı istasyonlarında trend olmayıp Şefaatli ve Salur Köprüsü istasyonlarında azalan bir trend görülmüştür. Şen trend testine göre ise her bir istasyon için düşük, orta ve yüksek akım değerlerinde farklı trendler gözlenmiştir. Neticede, yeni önerilen Şen metodunda, özellikle görsel olarak veri değerlendirme aşamasında tüm aralıklardaki trendlerin yorumlanabilmesi önemli bir avantaj olarak görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Akım, Mann-Kendall test, şen trend testi, Türkiye

Trend Analysis of Streamflows at Some Gauging Stations Over the Kizilirmak River

In this study, a new trend method recently proposed by Şen is used for monthly streamflow data of four different stations, Sefaatli, Kuylus, Salur Bridge and Bulakbasi, selected from the Kizilirmak Basin in Turkey. The Mann-Kendall trend test is also applied to the same data, and the results are discussed. According to the Mann-Kendall test, a significantly decreasing trend is found for the Sefaatli and Salur Bridge stations while there is no trend in the Kuylus and Bulakbasi stations at a significant level of 95%. Different trends are found for the low, medium and high streamflows of each station in view of the Şen trend test. As a result, it can be said that the proposed new method of Şen can identify the trends of low, medium, and high streamflows.

Keywords:

Streamflow, Mann-Kendall test, şen trend test, Turkey,

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