YSA, KNN ve ANFIS Modellerini Kullanarak Aylık Akım Tahmini: Gediz Nehri Havzası Örneği

Akarsu akış tahmini, su temini, sulama, su altyapılarının inşası, taşkınlara karşı önlem alınması gibi birçok konu için çok önemlidir. Gelecekteki nehir akışını tahmin etme yeteneği, yaklaşan selleri tahmin etmemize ve planlamamıza, mülk tahribatını azaltmamıza, ölümleri önlememize ve suyu mümkün olan en iyi şekilde yönetmemize yardımcı olur. Akarsu akışını tahmin etmek için farklı hidrolojik modeller geliştirilmiştir. Bu modeller, araştırma alanı ve mevcut veriler tarafından yönlendirilen farklı özelliklere sahiptirler. Bu çalışmada, K-En Yakın Komşu (KNN), Yapay Sinir Ağı (ANN) ve Uyarlanabilir Nöro Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi (ANFIS), olarak üç farklı yapay zeka modeli kullanılmıştır. Türkiye'nin batısındaki Ege bölgesinde yer alan Gediz Nehri Havzasının verileri ise eğitim ve test için kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, verilerin karmaşıklığı ve çalışma alanının farklı bölümleri ve ayrıca modellerin yapısı nedeniyle değişiklik göstermiştir, genel olarak, Regresyon katsayısı (R²), Ortalama Karesel Hata (RMSE) ve Wilcoxon (WT) değerlerine bakıldığında ANFIS, YSA ve KNN modellerine kıyasla daha doğrudur. Taylor diyagramına göre ise KNN, ANN ve ANFIS'e kıyasla daha doğrudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Akış Tahmini, ANFIS, ANN, KNN, Gediz Nehri Havzası, Wilcoxon

Monthly Streamflow Prediction Using ANN, KNN and ANFIS models: Example of Gediz River Basin

Stream flow forecasting is very important in many aspects such as water supply, irrigation, building water infrastructures, and taking precautions against floods. The ability to forecast future streamflow helps us anticipate and plan for upcoming flooding, decreasing property destruction, preventing deaths and managing water in the best way possible. Different hydrological models have been developed for predicting streamflow and they have different characteristics, driven by the research area and available data. İn this study, three types of Artificial Intelligence models; K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) have been used to study the Gediz River Basin which is located in the Aegean region of western Turkey. The results varied due to the complication of the data and different parts of the study area as well as the structure of the models, over all, looking at Regression coefficient (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Wilcoxon (WT) values, ANFIS is more accurate compared to ANN and KNN models. Conversely, according to Taylor diagram, KNN is more accurate compared to ANN and ANFIS.

Keywords:

Streamflow Prediction, ANFIS, ANN, KNN, Gediz River Basin, Wilcoxon,

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