Ahmet Semih UZUNDUMLU, Muhammet Emre ÖKSÜZ, Seval KURTOĞLU

Türkiye'de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği

Bu çalışmanın amacı 24 yıllık veriler dikkate alınarak Türkiye'de incir üretiminin gelecek yıllardaki tahmininin belirlenmesidir. İncir üretimi Türkiye'nin dış ticaretinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Türkiye Dünya incir üretiminin %23'ünü karşılamaktadır. Türkiye'nin 81 ilinin 60'ında incir üretimi yapılmaktadır. Türkiye’de incir üretiminin %86'sı 5 il tarafından karşılanmaktadır. Bu iller Aydın, İzmir, Bursa, Mersin ve Hatay'dır. Türkiye'de 2015-2023 arasında incir üretiminin tahminini belirlemede ARİMA modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye'de incir üretimi gelecekte azalacaktır. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar politika yapıcılarına yön verecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ARIMA, Ficus carica, İncir, Tahmin, Üretim, Türkiye

Future of Fig Product in Turkey

The aim of this study is to predict the future of figs product taking into account twenty-four years of fig production in Turkey. Figs are a very important product in Turkey's foreign trade. 23% of the world’s fig productions are provided by Turkey. In 60 of the 81 provinces in Turkey is done fig production. The total fig production’s approximately 86% is getting five provinces in Turkey. These provinces are Aydin, Izmir, Bursa, Mersin and Hatay respectively. ARIMA model used to forecast of fig production quantity during the period 2015 to 2023 in Turkey. According to findings of this study, it is forecasted that Turkey’s fig production will decrease during the period 2015 to 2023. The results obtained from this study will help to producers, policy makers and consumers in Turkey.

Keywords:

ARIMA, Ficus carica, Fig, Forecast, Produce, Turkey,

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