Ahmet Semih UZUNDUMLU, Muhammet Emre ÖKSÜZ, Seval KURTOĞLU

Türkiye'de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği

İncir sıcak ve nemli iklimlerde yetişen bir meyve olduğu için Akdeniz iklim kuşağındaki ülkelerde yaygın olarak yetiştirilmektedir. İncir içerdiği mineral ve vitaminler bakımından insan beslenmesinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Taze incir doğrudan tüketime sunulurken kuru incir birçok tatlının yapımında ana veya yardımcı ürün olarak kullanılmaktadır. Akdeniz iklim kuşağında yer alan Türkiye’de önemli bir incir üreticisi ve ihracatçısıdır. Dünya incir üretiminin %23'ü Türkiye tarafından sağlanmaktadır. Türkiye’nin 81 ilinin 60’ında incir üretimi yapılmakla birlikte üretimin en yoğun yapıldığı iller Aydın, İzmir, Bursa, Mersin ve Hatay'dır. Bu beş il, Türkiye toplam incir üretiminin yaklaşık %86'sını sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1991 2016 yılları verilerini kullanarak, 2017-2025 yıllarını kapsayan gelecek 9 yıl için Türkiye incir üretiminin seyrini tahmin ederek önemli bir ihraç ürünü olan incirle ilgili karar vericilere bilgi sağlamaktır. Çalışmada tahminler ARIMA modeli kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, 2017-2025 yıllarını kapsayan gelecek 9 yıllık dönemde Türkiye incir üretiminin azalacağı buna karşın incir üretiminde önde gelen 5 ilin toplamdaki payı %1 artacaktır. Tahminlere göre yaş incir üretiminde önde olan illerde incir üretimi artmakta ve kuru incir üretiminde önde olan illerde ise incir üretimi azalmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, yeni ihracat imkânları için Türkiye'nin diğer ülkelerde sofralık incir talebi oluşturması gerekmektedir.

Future of Fig Production in Turkey

Fig is a fruit that grows in warm and humid climates; therefore, it is widely cultivated in the countries of Mediterranean climate zone. It has an important role in human nutrition with the minerals and vitamins it contains. While fresh figs are offered for direct consumption, dried figs are used as the main or auxiliary ingredient in many desserts. Located in the Mediterranean climate zone, Turkey is an important fig producer and exporter with a share of 23% in world fig production. Although fig production is realized in 60 out of 81 provinces in Turkey, it is mostly produced in Aydin, İzmir, Bursa, Mersin, and Hatay provinces, which provide some 86 percent of the total production. The aim of this study is to predict the fig production trend of Turkey for the next 9 years from 2017 to 2025 using the fig production data from the period between 1991 and 2016 in order to enlighten the policy and decision makers regarding fig, an important export product of Turkey. The ARIMA model has been used to make the estimations in the study. According to the findings, it has been forecasted that Turkey’s fig production will decrease in the next ten years from 2017 to 2025 and the total share of five leading provinces will increase by 1 percent in fig production. It has also been estimated that fig production will increase in leading fresh fig producer provinces, whereas it will decrease in leading dried fig producer provinces in Turkey. It has been concluded that there is a need to create fresh fig demand in other countries for new exporting possibilities.

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