TFF 1. LİGDE TAKIMLARIN EV SAHİBİ AVANTAJI VE DEPLASMAN DEZAVANTAJI ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Futbolda, bir takımın maçı kendi sahasında ya da deplasmanda oynamasının, maçın sonucu üzerinde oldukça etkili olduğu bilinmektedir. Bununla birlikte, her takımın farklı seviyede ev sahibi avantajına ve deplasman dezavantajına sahip olduğu bir gerçektir. Bu çalışmada 2001/2002 ile 2021/2022 yılları arasında en az 3 sezon Türkiye 1. Ligi’nde yer alan takımlar için ev sahibi olma avantajı ve deplasman dezavantajı araştırılmıştır. Poisson regresyonun kullanıldığı çalışmada, takımların avantaj ve dezavantaj değerleri takımların attıkları ve yedikleri gol üzerinden analiz edilmiştir. 53 takım için yapılan tahminler sonucunda, 49 takımın ev sahibi avantajına sahip olduğu buna karşın 22 takımın deplasman dezavantajına sahip olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Takımların ev sahibi avantajı değerlerinin %37,9 ile %72,9 arasında değişmesine karşın takımlar arasında anlamlı bir farklılık olmadığı, deplasman dezavantajı değerlerinin ise %46,7 ile %65,4 arasında değiştiği ve takımlar arasında anlamlı bir farklılık bulunduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Takımların farklı ev sahibi avantajı ve deplasman dezavantajına sahip olmasının sebebi olarak, seyirci avantaj, stadyumun yapısı, deplasman yolculuğu mesafesi ile takımların kendi sahalarında ve deplasmanda uyguladıkları farklı oyun taktikleri gibi nedenler gösterilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

futbol, ev sahibi avantajı, deplasman dezavantajı, poisson regresyon, genelleştirilmiş tahmin denklemleri

AN INVESTIGATION ON HOME ADVANTAGE AND AWAY DISADVANTAGE OF TEAMS IN THE TFF 1. LEAGUE

In football, it is well known that whether a team plays a match at their home stadium or away from home can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game. However, it is also a fact that every team has a different level of home advantage and away disadvantage. In this study, the home advantage and away disadvantage for teams that have participated in the Turkish 1. League for at least 3 seasons between 2001/2002 and 2021/2022 were investigated. In the study, Poisson regression has been used to analyze the home advantage and away disadvantage values of teams based on the goals they scored and conceded. The predictions for 53 teams showed that 49 teams had a home advantage, while 22 teams did not have an away disadvantage. The values of the home advantage for teams ranged from 37.9% to 72.9%, but there was no significant difference between teams. On the other hand, the values of the away disadvantage for teams ranged from 46.7% to 65.4%, and there was a significant difference between teams. The reasons for teams having different levels of home advantage and away disadvantage may include factors such as the advantage of having supporters, stadium structure, travel distance for away games, and different tactical approaches taken by teams when playing at home or away.

Keywords:

football, home advantage, away disadvantage, poisson regression, generalized estiamted equations,

PDF

___

Agnew, G. A., & Carron, A. V. (1994). Crowd effects and the home advantage. International Journal of Sport Psychology, 25, 53 – 62.
Allen,M. S., & Jones,M. V. (2014). The home advantage over the first 20 seasons of the English Premier League: effects of shirt colour, team ability and time trends. International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 12(1), 10–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/1612197X.2012.756230.
Armatas V, & Pollard R (2014). Home advantage in Greek football. European Journal of Sport Science, 14(2), 116–122.
Balmer, N. J., Nevill, A. M., Lane, A. M., Ward, P., Williams, A. M., & Fairclough, S. H. (2007). Influence of crowd noise on soccer refereeing consistency in soccer. Journal of Sport Behavior, 30(2), 130-145.
Carron, A. V., Loughhead, T. M., & Bray, S. R. (2005). The home advantage in sport competitions: Courneya and Carron's (1992) conceptual framework a decade later. Journal of sports sciences, 23(4), 395-407.
Clarke, S. R., & Norman, J. M. (1995). Home ground advantage of individual clubs in English soccer. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 44(4), 509-521.
Dowie, J. (1982). Why Spain should win the world cup. New Scientist, 94(10), 693-695.
Ertetik, G. & Müniroğlu, R.S. (2021). Avrupa kupalarına katılan türk futbol takımlarının maçlarının teknik ve taktik açıdan analizi. Spormetre Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 19(1), 156-163. DOI: 10.33689/spormetre.779682.
Goumas, C. (2013). Modelling home advantage in sport: A new approach. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 13(2), 428-439.
Goumas, C. (2014). Home advantage in Australian soccer. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, 17(1), 119-123.
Goumas, C. (2014b). Home advantage and referee bias in European football. European journal of sport science, 14(sup1), S243-S249. Goumas C. (2017) Modelling home advantage for individual teams in UEFA Champions League football. Journal of Sport and Health Science, 6(2017) 321–326.
Gürkan O., Göral K., & Saygın Ö. (2017) Profesyonel futbolda ev sahibi olma avantajı: Türkiye 1. Liginin analizi, Journal of Human Sciences, 14(4), 3292-3299.
Gürkan, O. & Müniroğlu, R. S. (2018). 2016 Avrupa Futbol şampiyonasındaki mücadelelerin teknik-taktik açıdan analizi. Spormetre Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(3), 101-108. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/spormetre/issue/68402/1076264.
Gürkan, O. (2023). Futbolda bazı teknik parametrelerin maç konumu, maç sonucu ve lig sıralamasına göre incelenmesi (2021/2022 Sezonu Türkiye Futbol Süper Ligi Örneği), Akdeniz Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(1), 326-340. DOI: 10.38021/asbid.1199512
Işıkdemir, E. (2020). Futbolda puan ve eleme usulune göre oynanan karşılaşmalarda ev sahibi olmak bir avantaj mıdır? 2018-2019 Şampiyonlar ligi analizi. Spormetre Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 18(2), 157-165 . DOI: 10.33689/spormetre.603701
İnan T. (2018). Analyzing the home-field advantage in major european football leagues, International Journal of Environmetal & Science Education, 13(2), 113-124.
Karlis, D., & Ntzoufras I. (2003). Analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models. The Statistician, 52, 381–93.
Leite W.S.S. (2017) Home Advantage: Comparison between the Major European Football Leagues, Athens Journal of Sports, 4(1), 65-74.
Loughead, T. M., Carron, A. V., Bray, S. R., & Kim, A. (2003). Facility familiarity and the home advantage in Professional sports. International Journal of Sport Psychology and Exercise Psychology, 1, 264 – 274.
Marek, P., & Vávra, F. (2020). Comparison of home advantage in European football leagues. Risks, 8(3), 87.
Matos, R., Monteiro, D., Antunes, R., Mendes, D., Botas, J., Clemente, J., & Amaro, N. (2021). Home-advantage during COVID-19: an analysis in Portuguese football league. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(7), 3761.
Moore, J. C., & Brylinsky, J. (1995). Facility familiarity and the home advantage. Journal of Sport Behavior, 18(4), 302.
Desmond, M. (1981). The soccer tribe. Jonathan Cape, London.
Myers, T., Nevill, A., & Al-Nakeeb, Y. (2012). The influence of crowd noise upon judging decisions in Muay Thai. Advances in Physical Education, 2(04), 148.
Vandoni, M., Ferraro, O. E., Gatti, A., Marin, L., Giuriato, M., Silvestri, D., ... & Carnevale Pellino, V. (2022). The role of crowd support on home advantage during COVID-19 restrictions on Italian football competitions. Comparison between 2018–19 and 2020–21 seasons of the Italian serie A and serie B championships. Sports, 10(2), 17.
Nevill, A., Balmer, N., & Williams, M. (1999). Crowd influence on decisions in association football. The Lancet, 353(9162), 1416.
ÖNDES, H. (2019). Türkiye Spor Toto Süper Ligi kulüplerinin ev sahibi olma avantajı. Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 30(2), 74-84.
Page, L., & Page, K. (2007). The second leg home advantage: Evidence from European football cup competitions. Journal of Sports Sciences, 25(14), 1547-1556.
Pollard, R. (1986). Home advantage in soccer: A retrospective analysis. Journal of sports sciences, 4(3), 237-248. Pollard, R. (2002). Evidence of a reduced home advantage when a team moves to a new stadium. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20(12), 969-973.
Pollard, R. (2008). Home advantage in football: A current review of an unsolved puzzle. The open sports sciences journal, 1(1), 12-14.
Pollard, R., Silva, C. D., & Medeiros, N. C. (2008). Home advantage in football in Brazil: differences between teams and the effects of distance traveled. Revista Brasileira de Futebol (The Brazilian Journal of Soccer Science), 1(1), 3-10.
Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. A. (2009). Home advantage in football in South-West Europe: Long-term trends, regional variation, and team differences. European Journal of Sport Science, 9(6), 341-352.
Pollard, R., & Gómez, M. Á. (2015). Validity of the established method of quantifying home advantage in soccer. Journal of Human Kinetics, 45(1), 7-8.
Ramchandani, G., Millar, R., & Wilson, D. (2021). The relationship between team ability and home advantage in the English football league system. German Journal of Exercise and Sport Research, 51(3), 354-361.
Recht, L. D., Lew, R. A., & Schwartz, W. J. (1995). Baseball teams beaten by jet lag. Nature, 377(6550), 583-583.
Rooney, L., & Kennedy, R. (2018). Home advantage in Gaelic football: The effect of divisional status, season and team ability. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 18(6), 917-925.
Seckin, A., & Pollard, R. (2008). Home advantage in Turkish professional soccer. Perceptual and motor skills, 107(1), 51-54.
Tütüncü O., Yolgörmez A.C. (2021). Futbolda ev avantajı mı, deplasman dezavantajı mı? Covıd-19 pandemi süreci örneği. Gazi Beden Eğitimi ve Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 26(1), 137-149.
White, H. (1982). Maximum likelihood estimation of misspecified models. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 1-25.