Mehmet Çağrı GÖZEN, Fikriye Ceren BOSTANCI

Türkiye ve Ana Ticaret Partnerleri için J Eğrisinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı Uygulaması

Dış ticaret ekonomik yapılarından veya uyguladıkları ekonomi politikalarından dolayı bazı ülkeler için arzu edilen sonuçlar doğurmaz ve ülkeler bundan dolayı önemli dış ticaret açıkları veya ekonomik krizlerle yüz yüze gelebilir. Bu yüzden araştırmacılar ve politika yapıcılar ülkelerin dış ticaret dengelerinin dinamiklerini analiz ederler. Türkiye’nin kronik cari işlemler açığı en önemli makroekonomik sorunlarından biridir ve geçmişte Türkiye parasının değerini düşürerek dış ticaret açığını azaltmaya çalışmıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ve onun 6 ana dış ticaret partneri için - Rusya, ABD, Almanya, Birleşik Krallık, İtalya ve Çin- J eğrisi hipotezinin geçerliliği sınanmıştır. Kısa dönemi analiz eden test sonuçlarına göre bütün panel istatistiksel olarak anlamsız çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

J Eğrisi, Dış Ticaret Açığı, Westerlund Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi, DOLS Metodu, DCCE Modeli

Validity of J-Curve for Turkey and Its Main External Trade Partners: An Application of a Panel Data Approach

External trade cannot create the expected result for some countries due to their economic structures or policies. Economies could encounter severe foreign trade deficits and the risk of an economic crisis. Thus, researchers and policymakers analyse the dynamics of countries’ external trade balances. Turkey’s persistent current account deficit is one of the most significant macroeconomic problems. Turkey depreciated the Turkish Lira against foreign currencies to reduce its foreign trade deficit in the past. Using panel data analysis, the current study tests the J-curve for Turkey and its six main foreign trade partner countries - Russia, USA, Germany, UK, Italy, and China. Results do not support the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in the long run. Test results analysing the short-run indicate that the whole panel is statistically insignificant.

Keywords:

J-Curve, External Trade Deficits, Westerlund Panel Cointegration Analysis, DOLS Method, DCCE Model,

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