İşgücü Piyasası Durumları Arasındaki Geçişlerin Markov Modelleri ile İncelenmesi

Çalışmanın amacı çalışma çağında olan bireylerin işgücü piyasası durumları arasındaki geçişleri üzerinde etkili olan sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik etmenleri geçiş matrisleri ve geçiş (Markov) modelleriyle incelemektir. Bireylerin işgücü piyasası durumları arasındaki geçişlerinde 2008 finans krizinin yarattığı etkinin de belirlenebilmesi amacıyla 2007-2010 Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması Panel Veri Seti kullanılmaktadır. Türkiye’de kadın işgücüne katılımının dünya ortalamasının altında olması nedeniyle kadın ve erkekler için tahmin edilen modeller ile karşılaştırma yapılması sağlanmaktadır. Çalışmada üç işgücü durumu (istihdam, işsiz ve işgücü dışı) arasındaki hareketlilik, Geçiş Matrisleri ile elde edilmekte ve geçişler üzerinde etkili olan etmenler Multinomial Logit modelleri ile incelenmektedir. Öne çıkan bulgulara göre kriz döneminde işsizlik sürekliliği ve istihdamdan işsizliğe geçme olasılığı artmaktadır. Hanede küçük çocuk olması kadınların işgücüne katılımını negatif, erkeklerin ise pozitif etkilemektedir. Üniversite mezunları en yüksek istihdam sürekliliğine sahiptir. Ayrıca kadınların eğitim düzeyleri açısından sadece üniversite ve üzeri eğitime sahip olmak işgücü dışından istihdama geçişlerinde pozitif etki yaratmaktadır.

Analysis of Transitions Between Labor Market States by Markov Models

Aim of this study is to investigate the socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect the transitions between labour market states of individuals at working age with transition matrices and Markov transition models. To determine the effects of 2008 financial crisis on the transitions between labour market states of individuals, 2007 -2010 Income and Living Conditions Survey Panel Data Set is used. Since labour force participation rate of women in Turkey is below world average, models estimated for women and men separately help comparing results. In this study, mobility among labour market states (employed, unemployed and out of labour force) is obtained using transition matrices and factors that affect the transitions are investigated utilizing Multinomial Logit Models. According to main findings, during crisis period duration of unemployment increases and transition probability from employed to unemployed increases. While having a child in the household negatively affects the labour force participation of women, it positively affects the labour force participation of men. University graduates have the longest employment duration. Moreover, for women, only having university degree or higher positively affects transitions from out of labour force to employed.

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