Türkiye Ekonomisinde Enflasyon ve Kamu Sektörü Açığı Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkiler ve Makro-Ekonomik Yansımaları 1975-2016

Temel makro ekonomik göstergeler arasında, özellikle enflasyon ve kamu sektörü açığındaki bozulma süreci 1980’lı yıllarda başlamış ve 1990’larda hızlanmıştır. Bu makalede, enflasyon ile kamu sektörü açığı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ve bu ilişkinin sonucunda ortaya çıkan makro ekonomik dinamiklerin analizi amaçlanmıştır. Analizde kullanılan değişkenler enflasyon oranı, faiz ödemeleri/bütçe harcamaları, bütçe açığı/GSYH, dolaşımdaki para ve döviz kurudur. Uzun dönemli ilişki için Johansen eşbütünleşme yöntemi, nedensellik sınamaları için ise VECM tabanlı Granger analizi kullanılmıştır. Örnek dönemi 1975-2016 yıllarıdır. Araştırmadan elde edilen en önemli sonuç, yüksek ve kronik enflasyon oranlarının, başta kamu sektörü dengesi olmak üzere, temel makro ekonomik değişkenlerde ortaya çıkan bozulmaların en önemli sorumlularından birisi olduğudur. Benzer şekilde, 2000’li yıllarda kamu dengesinde sağlanan olumlu gelişmelerin temelinde de, enflasyon oranlarının hızlı ve kalıcı bir şekilde düşmesi yatmaktadır.

The Dynamic Relationships Between Inflation and Public Sector Deficit in the Turkish Economy and Its Macroeconomic Implications 1975–2016

The process of deterioration in the fundamentals, in particular those related to inflation and the public sector deficits, that had started in the 1980’s have accelerated in the 1990’s. In this context, this paper examines the long-term relationship between inflation and the public sector deficit and provides an analysis of the macro dynamics that derive from this relationship. The variables used in the analysis are inflation rate, interest payments/budget expenditures, budget deficit/GDP, money in circulation and exchange rate. Johansen cointegration method was used for longterm relationship and VECM-based Granger analysis was used for causality tests. The sample period is 1975-2016.The most important result of this article is that high and chronic inflation rates are one of the responsible of deterioration which appeared on the main economic variables particularly in the public sector balance. Similarly, in the 2000’s, on the basis of positive developments in the public balance lies in falling inflation rates quickly and permanently.

Keywords:

Inflation, Public Sector Deficit, Johansen Cointegration VECM, Causality,

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