Taha EĞRİ, Bensu TİMUR, Canan Özge EĞRİ, Yüksel BAYRAKTAR

Seçilmiş Ortadoğu Ülkeleri için Ekonomik Büyüme ve Savunma Harcamaları İlişkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Literatürde savunma harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisini tartışan birçok çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmalarda büyüme ve savunma harcamaları arasındaki ilişkinin yönü tam olarak tespit edilememiştir. Pozitif bir ilişkiyi bulan çalışmalar yanında, savunma harcamalarının ekonomi üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olduğunu gösteren birçok çalışma da mevcuttur. Literatürde görüş birliğinin oluşmaması, çok sayıda ampirik çalışmanın yapılmasını da beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ve seçilmiş Ortadoğu ülkeleri için ekonomik büyüme ile savunma harcamaları arasındaki ilişki ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmada seçilmiş ülke grubu için daha önce 1988’e kadar bulunan savunma harcamaları veri setinin yakında zamanda güncellenmiş hali kullanılarak, 1970-2012 yılları arası için panel veri analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Yeni veri setiyle yapılan analizde büyüme ve savunma harcamaları arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Savunma Harcamaları, Ortadoğu, Kamu Borçları, Enflasyon

Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Selected Middle East Countries: Panel Data Analysis

There are many studies in the literature discussing the impact of defense spending on economic growth. The direction of the relationship between growth and defense spending in these studies has not been fully determined. In addition to studies that find a positive relationship, there are many studies showing that defense spending has negative effects on the economy. The lack of a consensus in the literature has led to a number of empirical studies. This study examines the relationship between economic growth and defense spending for Turkey and selected Middle East countries. Panel data analysis was conducted for the selected country group in the study between 1970 and 2012, using the up-to-date version of the defense spending data set up to 1988. In the analysis made with the new dataset, it was determined that there is a negative relationship between growth and defense spending

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Defense Spending, Middle East, Public Debt, Inflation,

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Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2003). Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6), 567– 583. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(03)00057-7
Ahmed, A. D. (2012). Debt Burden, Military Spending And Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2011.627163
Defence and Peace Economics, 23(5), 485–506.
Baltagi, B. H. (2013). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (5 edition). Chichester, West Sussex: Wiley.
Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and economic growth in developing countries. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books.
Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280. https://doi.org/10.1086/451015
Biswas, B., & Ram, R. (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361–372. https://doi.org/10.1086/451533
Chang, H.-C., Huang, B.-N., & Yang, C. W. (2011). Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach. Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2416–2423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.001
Dakurah, A. H., Davies, S. P., & Sampath, R. K. (2001). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651–658. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(01)00079-5
Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defense Expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 179–196. https://doi.org/10.1086/451577
DeRouen Jr, K. (2000). The guns-growth relationship in Israel. Journal of Peace Research, 37(1), 69– 83.
Dunne, J. P., Perlo-Freeman, S., & Soydan, A. (2004). Military expenditure and debt in South America. Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 173–187. https://doi.org/10.1080/1024269032000110540
Dunne, J. P., Smith, R. P., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500167791 Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449–461.
Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E., & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430710108404974
Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5–26.
Erdogdu, O. S. (2008). POLITICAL DECISIONS, DEFENSE AND GROWTH. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(1), 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690701453701
Faini, R., Annez, P., & Taylor, L. (1984). Defense Spending, Economic Structure, and Growth: Evidence among Countries and over Time. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32(3), 487–498.
Farzanegan, M. R. (2014). Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(3), 247–269. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.723160
Frederiksen, P. C., & Looney, R. E. (1982). Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. The Journal of Economic Development, 7(1), 113–125.
Galvin, H. (2003). The impact of defence spending on the economic growth of developing countries: A cross-section https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690302932 Defence and Peace Economics, 14(1), 51–59.
Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis (5th ed.). ABD: Prentice Hall.
Gujarati, D. N. (2002). Basic Econometrics: 4th (fourth) edition (4th edition edition). McGraw-Hill Companies, The.
Günlük‐Şenesen, G. (2001). Measuring the extent of defence expenditures: The Turkish case with Turkish https://doi.org/10.1080/10430710108404975 Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 27–45.
Güriş, S. (2015). Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri. Istanbul: Der Yayınları.
Heo, U. (2010). The Relationship between Defense Spending and Economic Growth in the United States. Political Research Quarterly; Salt Lake City, 63(4), 760–770.
Judge, G. G., Griffiths, W. E., Hill, R. C., Lütkepohl, H., & Lee, T.-C. (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics (2 edition). New York: Wiley.
Karadam, D. Y., Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2016). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 0(0), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1195573
Karagol, E. (2006). The Relationship Between External Debt, Defence Expenditures and Gnp Revisited: The Case of Turkey. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500369199
Defence and Peace Economics, 17(1), 47–57.
Kollias, C., Manolas, G., & Paleologou, S.-M. (2004). Defence expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: A causality analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(5), 553–569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2004.03.013
Künü, S., Hopoğlu, S., & Bozma, G. (2016). Conflict, Defense Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 6(1), 80–86.
Landau, D. (1986). Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 35–75.
Lebovic, J. H., & Ishaq, A. (1987). Military Burden, Security Needs, and Economic Growth in the Middle East. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31(1), 106–138.
Lim, D. (1983). Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(2), 377–384.
Looney, R. E., & Frederiksen, P. C. (1986). Defense Expenditures, External Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 23(4), 329–338.
Mercan, M. (2014). Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Turkiye Ekonomisi icin Sinanmasi: Yatay Kesit Bagimliligi Altinda Yapisal Kirilmali Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2), 231–245.
Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, Staffan I. Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jan Teorell, David Altman, … Jeffrey Staton. (2017). V-Dem Codebook v7.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. Retrieved from https://www.v-dem.net/en/data/data-version-7-1/
Mintz, A., & Stevenson, R. T. (1995). Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the “Peace Dividend”: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(2), 283–305.
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels (Working Paper). Faculty of Economics. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.5113
Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. 423X.2007.00227.x
(1), 105–127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368
Sezgin, S. (1997). Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 8(4), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719708404887
Sezgin, S. (2000). A note on defence spending in turkey: New findings. Defence and Peace Economics, 11(2), 427–435. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430710008404957
Smyth, R., & Kumar Narayan, P. (2009). A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence from Six Middle Eastern Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 46(2), 235–250. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343308100717
Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi Stata Uygulamalı (2nd ed.). İstanbul: Beta Basım.
Ward, M. D., & Davis, D. R. (1992). Sizing up the Peace Dividend: Economic Growth and Military Spending in the United States, 1948-1996. The American Political Science Review, 86(3), 748– 755.
Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S., & Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283– 295. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500114751
Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2003). Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6), 567– 583. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(03)00057-7
Ahmed, A. D. (2012). Debt Burden, Military Spending And Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2011.627163
Defence and Peace Economics, 23(5), 485–506.
Baltagi, B. H. (2013). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (5 edition). Chichester, West Sussex: Wiley.
Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and economic growth in developing countries. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books.
Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280. https://doi.org/10.1086/451015
Biswas, B., & Ram, R. (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361–372. https://doi.org/10.1086/451533
Chang, H.-C., Huang, B.-N., & Yang, C. W. (2011). Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach. Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2416–2423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.001
Dakurah, A. H., Davies, S. P., & Sampath, R. K. (2001). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651–658. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(01)00079-5
Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defense Expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 179–196. https://doi.org/10.1086/451577
DeRouen Jr, K. (2000). The guns-growth relationship in Israel. Journal of Peace Research, 37(1), 69– 83.
Dunne, J. P., Perlo-Freeman, S., & Soydan, A. (2004). Military expenditure and debt in South America. Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 173–187. https://doi.org/10.1080/1024269032000110540
Dunne, J. P., Smith, R. P., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500167791 Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449–461.
Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E., & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430710108404974
Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5–26.
Erdogdu, O. S. (2008). POLITICAL DECISIONS, DEFENSE AND GROWTH. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(1), 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690701453701
Faini, R., Annez, P., & Taylor, L. (1984). Defense Spending, Economic Structure, and Growth: Evidence among Countries and over Time. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32(3), 487–498.
Farzanegan, M. R. (2014). Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(3), 247–269. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.723160
Frederiksen, P. C., & Looney, R. E. (1982). Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. The Journal of Economic Development, 7(1), 113–125.
Galvin, H. (2003). The impact of defence spending on the economic growth of developing countries: A cross-section https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690302932 Defence and Peace Economics, 14(1), 51–59.
Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis (5th ed.). ABD: Prentice Hall.
Gujarati, D. N. (2002). Basic Econometrics: 4th (fourth) edition (4th edition edition). McGraw-Hill Companies, The.
Günlük‐Şenesen, G. (2001). Measuring the extent of defence expenditures: The Turkish case with Turkish https://doi.org/10.1080/10430710108404975 Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 27–45.
Güriş, S. (2015). Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri. Istanbul: Der Yayınları.
Heo, U. (2010). The Relationship between Defense Spending and Economic Growth in the United States. Political Research Quarterly; Salt Lake City, 63(4), 760–770.
Judge, G. G., Griffiths, W. E., Hill, R. C., Lütkepohl, H., & Lee, T.-C. (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics (2 edition). New York: Wiley.
Karadam, D. Y., Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2016). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 0(0), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1195573
Karagol, E. (2006). The Relationship Between External Debt, Defence Expenditures and Gnp Revisited: The Case of Turkey. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500369199
Defence and Peace Economics, 17(1), 47–57.
Kollias, C., Manolas, G., & Paleologou, S.-M. (2004). Defence expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: A causality analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(5), 553–569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2004.03.013
Künü, S., Hopoğlu, S., & Bozma, G. (2016). Conflict, Defense Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(1), 80–86.
Landau, D. (1986). Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 35–75.
Lebovic, J. H., & Ishaq, A. (1987). Military Burden, Security Needs, and Economic Growth in the Middle East. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31(1), 106–138.
Lim, D. (1983). Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(2), 377–384.
Looney, R. E., & Frederiksen, P. C. (1986). Defense Expenditures, External Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 23(4), 329–338.
Mercan, M. (2014). Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Turkiye Ekonomisi icin Sinanmasi: Yatay Kesit Bagimliligi Altinda Yapisal Kirilmali Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2), 231–245.
Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, Staffan I. Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jan Teorell, David Altman, … Jeffrey Staton. (2017). V-Dem Codebook v7.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. Retrieved from https://www.v-dem.net/en/data/data-version-7-1/
Mintz, A., & Stevenson, R. T. (1995). Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the “Peace Dividend”: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(2), 283–305.
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels (Working Paper). Faculty of Economics. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.5113
Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. 423X.2007.00227.x
(1), 105–127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368
Sezgin, S. (1997). Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 8(4), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719708404887
Sezgin, S. (2000). A note on defence spending in turkey: New findings. Defence and Peace Economics 11(2), 427–435. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430710008404957
Smyth, R., & Kumar Narayan, P. (2009). A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence from Six Middle Eastern Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 46(2), 235–250. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343308100717
Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi Stata Uygulamalı (2nd ed.). İstanbul: Beta Basım.
Ward, M. D., & Davis, D. R. (1992). Sizing up the Peace Dividend: Economic Growth and Military Spending in the United States, 1948-1996. The American Political Science Review, 86(3), 748– 755.
Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S., & Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283– 295. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500114751