TÜRKİYE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİNİN DEEP LEARNING BI-LSTM METODU İLE TAHMİNİ
Gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında yer alan Türkiye’nin enerji tüketimi sürekli artış göstermektedir. Artan bu enerji ihtiyacına rağmen enerji üretme konusunda ise yetersiz bir ülkedir. Enerji kullanımında dışa bağımlı bir ülke konumunda olan Türkiye, sürdürülebilir enerji arzında problemler yaşamaktadır. Özellikle son dönemde Rusya’nın Avrupa ülkelerine enerji ihracatında kısıtlamalara gitmesi tüm dünyada enerji krizine neden olmaktadır. Bu nedenle tüm dünyada olduğu gibi Türkiye için de enerji arz güvenliği hayati bir role sahiptir. Bu bağlamda gelecek dönemlere ait enerji tüketim tahmini, üzerinde durulması gereken stratejik bir konudur. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin 2005 Ocak-2018 Kasım yılları arasındaki aylık enerji tüketim miktarları alınmış ve sürekli artan bir grafik seyreden elektrik tüketiminin bi-directional LSTM modelleri (ADAM, RmsProp, SGDM) ile 2019-2023 aralığında 5 yıllık tahmini yapılmıştır. Modellerde en yüksek performans RMSprop optimizasyonu ile elde edilmiştir. 2019-2020 yılları arasında aylık gerçekleşen elektrik enerjisi tüketimi verileri ile RMSprop optimizasyonu ile elde edilen aynı dönem için aylık elektrik tüketiminin tahmini verileri karşılaştırılmıştır. Optimizasyon sonucuna göre Türkiye elektrik tüketimi artmaya devam edecektir. Türkiye artacak bu ihtiyacı karşısında gerekli planlamaları hızlı bir şekilde yürürlüğe koymalıdır. Enerji tasarrufu için hane halklarının eğitiminin planlara dahil edilmesi uygun bir çözüm olabilir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Bi-LSTM, Deep Learning, Elektrik Tüketim Tahmini, Enerji Ekonomisi, Enerji Talebi
FORECASTING TURKEY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION WITH DEEP LEARNING BI-LSTM MODEL*
The energy consumption of Turkey, which is among the developing countries, is constantly increasing. Despite this increasing energy need, it is an insufficient country in terms of energy production. Turkey, which is a foreign-dependent country in energy use, has problems with sustainable energy supply. Especially recently, Russia's restrictions on energy exports to European countries have caused an energy crisis all over the world. For this reason, energy supply security has a vital role for Turkey as well as for the rest of the world. In this context, the estimation of energy consumption for future periods is a strategic issue that should be emphasized. In the study, monthly energy consumption amounts of Turkey between January 2005 and November 2018 were taken and a five-year estimate of the ever-increasing electricity consumption in the range of 2019-2023 was made using bi-directional LSTM models (ADAM, RmsProp, SGDM). The highest performance in the models was obtained with RMSprop optimization. The monthly electrical energy consumption data between 2019-2020 and the estimated data of monthly electricity consumption for the same period obtained by RMSprop optimization were compared. According to the optimization result, Turkey's electricity consumption will continue to increase. Turkey should put into effect the necessary plans quickly in the face of this increasing need. Incorporating the education of households into plans for energy conservation may be a viable solution.
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- Başlangıç: 2022
- Yayıncı: Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi