Davranışsal Makroekonomi Çerçevesinde Hane Halkı Borçluluk Düzeyinin Analizi

Tüm gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde hane halklarının davranışları 20. yüzyılın ikinci yarısında ve 21. yüzyılın başında büyük bir değişiklik geçirdi. Özellikle çevresel ve psikolojik faktörlerin etkisi tüketim kararları üzerinde etkili olmaya başladı. Bunun sonucunda hane halkı tüketime karar verirken, tüketim harcamasına yönelik bir tercihin varlığı, makroekonomik bir değişken olarak hane halkının borç stokunu önemli bir değişken haline getirdi. Hane halkı borçluluk oranında ortaya çıkan artış;araştırılması gereken önemli bir sorunu ortaya çıkardı. Hane halkı tüketim harcamasının finansmanına yönelik olarak ortaya çıkan süreç makro iktisat politikalarınında etkilerinin asimetrik olmasına yol açtı. Bu çerçevede hane halkı tüketim harcaması ile borçlanma arasındaki duyarlılığın büyüklüğünün ve şiddetinin temel belirleyicisi olan makroekonomik değişkenlere ait parametreler tahmin edilmelidir. Çünkü, makroekonomik açıdan tüketim davranışlarının analizinin yapılmasını sağlayacak bilgiler sağlamaktadır. Buradan hareketle bu çalışma da zamanlar arası ikame elastikiyet yaklaşımına dayalı olarak söz konusu ilişki panel veri modeliyle analiz edilmektedir. Ayrıca, uygulama da homotetik olmayan tüketici tercihleri varsayımı altında hane halkları arasındaki heterojenliğin ülke bazında farklılığıyla analizler yapılmaktadır. Analizde 1998Q1-2020Q3 yılları arasında çeyreklik veriler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada OECD ülkelerine ait hane halkı geliri, hane halkı harcamaları, enflasyon, faiz oranları ve devlet tahvili faiz oranları değişkenlerinden oluşan ekonometrik model panel veri, GMM modeli ve kulüp yakınsama modelleriyle analiz edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Davranışsal Makroekonomi, Hane Halkı Tüketim, Zamanlararası İkame Esnekliği, Panel Zaman Serisi Modeli, Kulüp Yakınsama Modeli, GMM Modeli

Analysis of Household Debt Level in the Framework of Behavioral Macroeconomics

The behavior of households in all developed and developing countries have undergone major changes in the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. In particular, the effect of environmental and psychological factors began to have an impact on consumption decisions. As a result, the existence of a preference for consumption expenditure while the households decide to consume has made the household's debt stock an important variable as a macroeconomic variable. The increase in the household indebtedness ratio; raised an important issue that needed to be researched. The process that emerged for the financing of household consumption expenditures caused the effects of macroeconomic policies to be asymmetrical. In this framework, the parameters of macroeconomic variables, which are the main determinants of the size and severity of the sensitivity between household consumption expenditure and borrowing, should be estimated. Because it provides information that will enable the analysis of consumption behavior from a macroeconomic perspective. From this point of view, in this study, the relationship in question is analyzed with a panel data model based on the intertemporal substitution elasticity approach. In addition, analyzes are made with the heterogeneity of households on a country basis under the assumption of nonhomothetic preferences Quarterly data for the years 1998Q1-2020Q3 were used in the analysis. In the study, household income, household expenditures, inflation, interest rates and government bond interest rates and panel data, GMM model and club convergence model analysis tools of OECD countries were used.

Keywords:

Behavioral Macroeconomics, Household Consumption, Intertemporal Substitution elasticity, Panel Time Series Model, Club Convergence Model, GMM Models,

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