Sigara ve Alkol Tüketimi ile COVID-19 İlişkisinin Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmada, tüm dünyada son dönemde giderek artan bir şekilde varlığını sürdüren COVID-19 virüsünün yayılmasında ve şiddetinin artmasında etkili olduğu düşünülen sigara ve alkol tüketiminin virüs üzerindeki etkisinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmada, 2020-03-2021-02 döneminde Türkiye'de COVID-19 vaka sayıları ile sigara ve alkol tüketim değişkenleri arasındaki ilişki Doğrusal Olmayan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme modeli ile test edilmiştir. Bağımlı değişken ile bağımsız değişken arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli asimetrik ilişkiler NARDL modeli ile test edilmiş, bağımsız değişkenlerdeki olumlu ve olumsuz değişimlerin bağımlı değişkeni nasıl etkilediği ortaya konmuştur. Çalışmada, kısa vadede sigara tüketimindeki %1'lik artış, COVID-19 vakalarını %24 artırırken, %1'lik azalma COVID-19 vakalarını %12 azaltıyor. Alkol tüketimine ilişkin sonuçlar kısa vadede değerlendirildiğinde, alkol tüketimindeki %1'lik artış COVID-19 vakalarını %72 arttırırken, %1'lik azalma ise COVID-19 vakalarını %29 oranında azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

COVID-19, NARDL, Sigara ve Alkol Kullanımı

Evaluation of the Relationship Between Smoking and Alcohol Consumption and COVID-19: The Case of Turkey

In this study, it is aimed to analyze the effect of cigarette and alcohol consumption on the virus, which is thought to be effective in the spread and increase of the severity of the COVID-19 virus, which has been increasingly continuing its existence all over the world in the last period. Starting from this point, the study, the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases, smoking and alcohol consumption variables in Turkey in the period 2020-03-2021-02 was tested with the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The long and short-term asymmetrical relationships between the dependent variable and the independent variable were tested with the NARDL model, it has been revealed how the positive and negative changes in the independent variables affect the dependent variable. In the study, 1% increase in cigarette consumption in the short term increases COVID-19 cases by 24%, 1% reduction reduces COVID-19 cases by 12%. When the results related to alcohol consumption are evaluated in the short term, 1% increase in alcohol consumption increases COVID-19 cases by 72%, 1% reduction reduces COVID-19 cases by 29%.

Keywords:

COVID-19, NARDL, Smoking and Alcohol Use,

PDF

___

Akçağlayan, A., & Gemicioğlu, S. (2020). Döviz Kuru Şoklarının Para Politikası Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri Türkiye Örneği. Maliye Dergisi, (178), 1–18.
Altıntaş, H. (2016). Petrol Fiyatlarının Gıda Fiyatlarına Asimetrik Etkisi Türkiye için NARDL Modeli Uygulaması. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(4), 1–24.
Berlin, I., Thomas, D., Le Faou, A. L., & Cornuz, J. (2020). COVID-19 and smoking. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 22(9), 1650-1652.
Biçer, İ., Çakmak, C., Örgev, C., & Demir, H. (2021). Knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) regarding COVID-19 and Coronavirus anxiety levels in the Turkish population. DOI: 10.4328/ACAM.20482.
Cai, H. (2020). Sex difference and smoking predisposition in patients with COVID-19. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 8(4), e20.
Ceylan, F., Tüzün, O., Ekinci, R., & Kahyaoğlu, H. (2016). Tüketici Kredileri İle Paranın Dolanım Hızı Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişki Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(7), 2342–2357.
Dubey, S., Biswas, P., Ghosh, R., Chatterjee, S., Dubey, M. J., Chatterjee, S., ... & Lavie, C. J. (2020). Psychosocial impact of COVID-19. Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews, 14(5), 779-788.
Farsalinos, K., Barbouni, A., & Niaura, R. (2020). A systematic review of the prevalence of current smoking among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in China: could nicotine be a therapeutic option?. Internal and emergency medicine, 15(5), 845-852.
García-Álvarez, L., De La Fuente-Tomás, L., Sáiz, P. A., García-Portilla, M. P., & Bobes, J. (2020). Will changes in alcohol and tobacco use be seen during the COVID-19 lockdown?/? Se observaran cambios en el consumo de alcohol y tabaco durante el confinamiento por COVID-19?. Adicciones, 32(2), 85-90.
Kawohl, W., & Nordt, C. (2020). COVID-19, unemployment, and suicide. The Lancet Psychiatry, 7(5), 389-390.
Leung, J. M., Yang, C. X., & Sin, D. D. (2020). Reply to: “Current smoking is not associated with COVID-19”. European Respiratory Journal, 55(6).
Lima, C. K. T., de Medeiros Carvalho, P. M., Lima, I. D. A. A. S., de Oliveira Nunes, J. V. A., Saraiva, J. S., de Souza, R. I., ... & Neto, M. L. R. (2020). The emotional impact of Coronavirus 2019-nCoV (new Coronavirus disease). Psychiatry research, 287, 112915.
Lippi, G., & Henry, B. M. (2020). Active smoking is not associated with the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). European journal of internal medicine, 75, 107.
Liu, S., Yang, L., Zhang, C., Xiang, Y. T., Liu, Z., Hu, S., & Zhang, B. (2020). Online mental health services in China during the COVID-19 outbreak. The Lancet Psychiatry, 7(4), e17-e18.
Lo, E., & Lasnier, B. (2020). Active smoking and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): the use of significance testing leads to an erroneous conclusion. European journal of internal medicine, 77, 125-126.
Lu, H., Stratton, C. W., & Tang, Y. W. Outbreak of Pneumonia of Unknown Etiology in Wuhan China: the Mystery and the Miracle. Journal of Medical Virology.
Mamun, M. A., & Ullah, I. (2020). COVID-19 suicides in Pakistan, dying off not COVID-19 fear but poverty?–The forthcoming economic challenges for a developing country. Brain, behavior, and immunity.
Patanavanich, R., & Glantz, S. A. (2020). Smoking is associated with COVID-19 progression: a meta-analysis. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 22(9), 1653-1656.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp.289-326.
Rossato, M., Russo, L., Mazzocut, S., Di Vincenzo, A., Fioretto, P., & Vettor, R. (2020). Current smoking is not associated with COVID-19. European Respiratory Journal, 55(6).
Shin Y., Yu B., Greenwood-Nimmo M. (2014) Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In: Sickles R., Horrace W. (eds) Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9.
Testino, G. (2020). Are patients with alcohol use disorders at increased risk for Covid-19 infection?. Alcohol and Alcoholism, 55(4), 344-346.
Tsigaris, P., & Teixeira da Silva, J. A. (2020). Smoking prevalence and COVID-19 in Europe. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 22(9), 1646-1649.
Utkulu, U., & Ekinci, R. (2016). Uluslararası Petrol ve Gıda Fiyatlarından İç Fiyatlara Asimetrik ve Doğrusal Olmayan Fiyat Geçişkenliği Türkiye İçin NARDL Modeli Bulguları. Finans Politik Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53(617), 9–22.
Vardavas, C. I., & Nikitara, K. (2020). COVID-19 and smoking: A systematic review of the evidence. Tobacco induced diseases, 18.
WHO, (2020) Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID19 -March 2020 World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe . Alcohol Does not Protect Against COVID-19; Access Should be Restricted During Lockdown. Available online at: http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/alcohol-use/news/news/2020/04/alcohol-does-not-protect-against-covid-19-access-should-be-restricted-during-lockdown (accessed November 26, 2020).
World Health Organization. (2020a). Alcohol does not protect against COVID-19; access should be restricted during lockdown. Alcohol Use.
Zhao, Q., Meng, M., Kumar, R., Wu, Y., Huang, J., Lian, N., ... & Lin, S. (2020). The impact of COPD and smoking history on the severity of COVID‐19: A systemic review and meta‐analysis. Journal of medical virology, 92(10), 1915-1921.
Zhu, N., Zhang, D., Wang, W., Li, X., Yang, B., Song, J., ... & Niu, P. (2020). A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine.
Shokoohi, M., Nasiri, N., Sharifi, H., Baral, S., & Stranges, S. (2020). A syndemic of COVID-19 and methanol poisoning in Iran: Time for Iran to consider alcohol use as a public health challenge?. Alcohol, 87, 25-27.
Biddle, N., Edwards, B., Gray, M., & Sollis, K. (2020). Alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 period: May 2020.
Rehm, J., Kilian, C., Ferreira‐Borges, C., Jernigan, D., Monteiro, M., Parry, C. D., ... & Manthey, J. (2020). Alcohol use in times of the COVID 19: Implications for monitoring and policy. Drug and alcohol review, 39(4), 301-304.
Kim, J. U., Majid, A., Judge, R., Crook, P., Nathwani, R., Selvapatt, N., ... & Lemoine, M. (2020). Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on alcohol consumption in patients with pre-existing alcohol use disorder. The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, 5(10), 886-887.
Barbosa, C., Cowell, A. J., & Dowd, W. N. (2021). Alcohol consumption in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Journal of Addiction Medicine, 15(4), 341.
Malta, D. C., Gomes, C. S., Souza Júnior, P. R. B. D., Szwarcwald, C. L., Barros, M. B. D. A., Machado, Í. E., ... & Azevedo, L. O. (2021). Factors associated with increased cigarette consumption in the Brazilian population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, 37.
Gaiha, S. M., Cheng, J., & Halpern-Felsher, B. (2020). Association between youth smoking, electronic cigarette use, and COVID-19. Journal of adolescent health, 67(4), 519-523.