Rusya'ya Karşı Uygulanan Batı Yaptırımları Hakkında Rus Ekonomistlerin Görüşleri

Avrupa Konseyi 2014 yılı Mart ayında, Rusya'nın Kırım'ı ilhakına ve Doğu Ukrayna'daki askeri faaliyetlerine cevap olarak, Rusya'ya karşı yaptırım uygulama kararı aldı. AB, Rusya'nın Ukrayna'nın toprak bütünlüğü ve bağımsızlığına yönelik giriştiği eylemleri eleştirdi. Rusya ise AB'nin yaptırımlarına yanıt olarak, 2014 yılı Ağustos ayında, Batı ülkelerinden gelen tarım ürünlerine karşı gıda ambargosu getirdi. Bu noktada en çok tartışılan husus, bahsi geçen yaptırımların işlevselliği ve Rus ekonomisine etkisi üzerinedir. Başka bir deyişle, konunun uzmanları Batı yaptırımlarının Rusya'ya karşı işe yaradığına dair bulguları ortaya koymayı ve bunların Rus ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisini öngörmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu makale, Rus ekonomistlerin ve siyasi analistlerin Rusya'ya karşı uygulanan Batı yaptırımları konusundaki görüşlerini tartışmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Rusya'da ve yurtdışında yaşayıp, devlet için ve/veya akademide çalışmakta olan önemli Rus uzmanların görüş, analiz ve öngörülerini ortaya koymaktır. Yaptırımların uygulanmasından hemen sonra ortaya çıkan durum ve bu kıskaçtaki Rusya'nın ilerleyen süreçteki gelişim perspektifi hakkındaki çeşitli uzmanların görüşleri ele alındı. Bu makale, söz konusu bazı Batı yaptırımlarının çeşitli ekonomik sektörler üzerindeki etkisini ele almakta ve yaptırımların Rus ekonomisi üzerindeki genel etkisini tartışmaktadır. Bilhassa bu çalışma, Rus ekonomistler ve siyaset bilimcilerin mali yaptırımlar ve bunun Rus bankacılık sektörü üzerindeki etkisine; doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisine; ekonomi ve siyasi istikrar üzerindeki etkisine; ve yürürlüğe giren Rus tarım ambargosunun Batı ithalatı üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin görüşlerini içermektedir. Bir bölüm, ekonomistlerin siyasi araç olarak yaptırımların işlevselliğine ilişkin görüşleri üzerinde durmakta ve son bölüm ise 2014 yılından bu yana yaptırımların Rusya üzerindeki temel siyasi ve ekonomik etkilerini özetlemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Rus dış politikası, Sanctions, Russian economists, Annexation of Crimea, EU’s sanctions, Russia

The views of Russian economists on Western sanctions against Russia

In March 2014, in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military actions in Eastern Ukraine, the European Council decided to implement sanctions against Russia. The EU criticized Russia’s actions against Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. In response to the EU’s sanctions, in August 2014 Russia introduced a food embargo on agricultural products from Western countries. The most frequently discussed topic regarding these sanctions is their effectiveness and their impact on the Russian economy. In other words, the experts aimed to identify evidence that Western sanctions do work against Russia and to estimate their effect on the Russian economy. This article discusses the views of Russian economists and political analysts on Western sanctions against Russia. The goal of the article is to present the opinions, analyses, and forecasts of leading Russian experts living in Russia and abroad and who are working for the government and/or in the academic field. The views of several experts were investigated regarding the situation resulting immediately after the imposing of sanctions and regarding perspectives of future development in Russia under the influence of sanctions. This article addresses the impact of some of these Western sanctions on different economic sectors and discusses the overall effect of sanctions on the Russian economy. In particular, the article covers the opinions of Russian economists and political experts concerning financial sanctions and its impact on the Russian banking sector; impact on direct foreign investments; impact on economic and political stability; and the effect from the introduction of Russian agricultural embargo on Western import. One section is focused on the views of economists on effectiveness of sanctions as political tool, and the last section summarizes the main political and economic effects of sanctions on Russia since 2014.

Keywords:

Russian foreign policy, sanctions, Russian economists, annexation of Crimea, EU’s sanctions, Russia,

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