KORONA VİRÜS PANDEMİSİNİN AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ BORSALARINA ETKİLERİ

Dünya, koronavirüs pandemisi ile 1929 Büyük Buhranı'ndan bu yana en büyük ekonomik krizinden birini yaşıyor. 2008 küresel ekonomik krizinin etkileri tam olarak savuşturulmadan KOVİD pandemisinin ortaya çıkmış olması ekonomik kriz dinamiklerini yeniden tetiklemiştir. Avrupa Birliği ekonomisini de bu krizden derin bir şekilde etkilenmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, 2019 koronavirüs vaka sayısı ile Avrupa'nın en önemli borsa endeksleri arasındaki ilişkiyi zaman serisi analizi kullanarak incelemektedir. Analiz yapılırken üç farklı model oluşturulmuştur. Bu kapsamda COVID-19 vaka sayısı bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmak, bağımlı değişken olarak sırasıyla DAX Index, CAC 40 Index ve Euronext 100 Index test edilmektedir. Analiz sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu kanıtlamaktadır. Ayrıca Hata Düzeltme Modeli sonuçlarının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu görülmektedir. Sonuç olarak, tahmincinin sonuçları KOVİD-19’un Avrupa borsalarını olumsuz etkilediğii tespit edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

KOVİD-19, Avrupa Birliği Borsaları, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Eşbütünleşme Testleri

EFFECTS OF CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC ON STOCK MARKETS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

The world is undergoing one of the biggest economic crises since the 1929 Great Depression with the coronavirus pandemic. The emergence of the COVID pandemic, before the effects of the 2008 global economic crisis have not evaded, triggered the dynamics of the economic crisis again. The European Union (EU) economy is also deeply affected by the crisis. This paper explores the relationship between the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and Europe's most important stock market indices by using time series analysis. While performing the analysis, three different models were created. In this context, the number of cases of COVID-19 has been used as independent variables, while DAX Index, CAC 40 Index, and Euronext 100 Index have been tested as dependent variables, respectively. The analysis results prove that there is a long-run cointegration relationship between variables. We also found that the Error Correction Model results are statistically significant. Consequently, the results of the estimator determine that the COVID-19 negatively affected the European stock markets.

Keywords:

COVID-19, EU Stock Markets, Time Series Analysis, Cointegration Tests,

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