BRICS ÜLKELERİNDE DÖVİZ KURU VE BORSA ARASINDAKİ GETİRİ VE VOLATİLİTE ETKİLEŞİMİ: VAR-EGARCH MODELİ İLE BİR UYGULAMA

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı BRICS ülkelerine ait döviz kuru – borsa arasındaki getiri ve volatilite etkileşimi olup olmadığı araştırmaktır. Çalışmada 04.01.2004 - 29.12.2019 dönemi, haftalık verilerle VAR-EGARCH modeli kullanarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak BRICS ülkelerinden her bir ülkenin borsası ile döviz kuru arasın getiri ve volatilite etkileşimi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Brezilya döviz kuru ve borsa arasında çift yönlü getiri ve volatilite etkileşimi gerçekleşirken, Hindistan ve Çin için döviz kuru ve borsa arasında tek yönlü getiri etkileşimi gerçekleşmektedir. Rusya, Hindistan, Çin ve Güney Afrika döviz kurları ile borsaları arasında çift yönlü volatilite etkileşimi bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Borsa, Döviz Kuru, BRICS, VAR-EGARCH

INTERACTION OF RETURN AND VOLATILITY BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK MARKET IN BRICS COUNTRIES: AN APPLICATION WITH VAR-EGARCH MODEL

The main aim of this study is to investigate whether there is an interaction of return and volatility between the exchange rate and the stock market of BRICS countries. In the study, the period 04.01.2004 - 29.12.2019 was analyzed and using the VAR-EGARCH model with weekly data. As a result, it has been found that there is an interaction of return and volatility between the exchange rate of each country's stock market and the BRICS countries. For India and China, there is a one-way return interaction between the exchange rate and the stock market, while for Brazil, there is a one-way return interaction between the exchange rate and the stock market. In addition, it is found that there is a two-way volatility interaction between exchange rates and exchanges in Russia, India, China and South African countries.

Keywords:

Stock Market, Exchange Rate, BRICS, VAR-EGARCH,

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